Lawrence R.Klein——Autobiography

Lawrence R.Klein——Autobiography

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Leo Byron Klein and Blanche(Monheit)Klein,both of whom were born in the American Middle West,had three children.I,Lawrence Klein,was born in Omaha,Nebraska,as were my elder brother and younger sister.My early education was in the public school system of Omaha,where,retrospectively[1],I realize that my high school training served me in good stead for the basic subjects of mathematics,English,foreign languages and history.

Although I was not aware of it at the time,the experience of growing up during the Great Depression was to have a profound impact on my intellectual and professional career.Collegiate life subsequently gave me a basis for understanding this experience and to develop some analytical[2]skills for dealing with the important economic aspects of this era,as well as the exciting times that were to come——World War II,postwar reconstruction,and expansion.

An early fascination with higher mathematics at the university level blossomed into speculative[3]thinking that could provide a basis for dealing with economic issues.The teachings of the mathematics faculty at Los Angeles City College provided me with great stimulus,and the onset of World War II,with all the associated disturbances leading up to it,made a tremendous impression on my thoughts about sociopolitico-economic interrelationships[4].

The completion of my undergraduate training at the University of California(Berkeley)provided just the needed touches of rigor at advanced levels in both economics and mathematics.My teachers there gave me great encouragement and challenge.It came as a surprise to find that a professional society and journal(Econometrica)were flourishing,and I entered this area of study with great enthusiasm.

The next two steps in my training and professional development were,however,fundamental.A chance to study at M.I.T.under the rising star of the period——Paul A.Samuelson——was an unforgettable experience.I successfully vied for his time and attention which were instrumental in giving me a good grasp of economics and mathematical ways of dealing with significant problems of the subject.After I completed my dissertation under Paul Samuelson,the next major step was a decision to join the econometrics[5]team at the Cowles Commission of the University of Chicago,where the director,Jacob Marschak,gave me the challenging assignment of reviving Jan Tinbergen's early attempts at econometric model building for the United States.

At Chicago,I was in the midst of a veritable[6]galaxy[7]of stars:Trygve Haavelmo,Tjalling Koopmans,Theodore Anderson,Leonid Hurwicz,Herman Rubin,Kenneth Arrow,Don Patinkin,Herman Chernoff,and Herbert Simon,among others.I completed my first of a series of macroeconometric models,solidified my understanding of econometrics,learned(through endless discussion)about the functioning of the economy,and got started on several theoretical paths such as aggregation,demand systems,and prediction.

At the Cowles Commission,I met and married Sonia Adelson(my second marriage).We were anxious to visit Europe right after World War II and left for Norway in October,1947,to spend an academic year with Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo.On the way from Chicago,I spent the summer of 1947 in Ottawa,helping to build the first of a series of econometric models for the Canadian government.During 1948,I had the opportunity of visiting economists in Sweden(Herman Wold,Erik Lundberg,Erik Lindahl,and Ragnar Bentzel),on the Continent(Jan Tinbergen),and in England(Richard Stone).I also had stimulating contact with Poul Norregaard-Rasmussen,who was visiting Oslo,and with Jorgen Pedersen of Aarhus.When I returned to America in the Autumn,1948,I joined the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research at the invitation of Arthur Burns,on a post doctoral grant and was able to make some econometric studies of production functions that opened up approaches that have stood the test of time.I became interested,at that time,in the possibility of estimating the effects of wealth,especially liquid assets,on saving behavior and joined the staff of the Survey Research Center,University of Michigan(jointly with the National Bureau of Economic Research for another year)to exploit the data that were being produced by George Katona's surveys of consumer finances.My colleague,James Morgan,worked on similar problems and gave good insight to me.At Michigan,I restarted my work on macroeconometric model building and prepared,with my student,Arthur Goldberger,the model known as the Klein-Goldberger Model which evolved into a series of generations of the Michigan Model.

After four years at Michigan,I went to Oxford,at the suggestion of Frank Burchardt of the Institute of Statistics,to work on the data from the Oxford Savings Surveys and also to build a model of the U.K.During a four year stay at Oxford,I got started on some studies in theoretical econometrics dealing with methods of statistical inference.

Finally,I returned to America to join the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania,which has been my professional home ever since 1958.There I initiated a series of models that were to become known as the Wharton Models.They continue to develop.During my years at Pennsylvania,I have traveled widely,working on modeling projects for many countries——Japan,Israel,and Mexico,in particular.I have also supervised a number of dissertations[8]that became sustained modeling efforts for many developing and developed countries.

During the early 1960s,I decided to supplement research support for quantitative[9]economic studies at Pennsylvania by selling econometric forecasts to private and public sector buyers.The funds derived from these sales were then plowed back into student support and more general financing of a broader research effort in the Economics Department at Pennsylvania.This enterprise grew,over the years,into the status of a nonprofit corporation and ultimately was sold to a private publishing company to function as a for-profit corporation.The funds from the sale were put into research and general teaching budgets at the university.Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates,Inc.,is now a growing enterprise[10]with many model and other econometric facilities.

After my first visit to Japan,in 1960,to work on a joint model building project at Osaka University,I maintained a continuing interest in the country and the entire Far East.On many occasions,I returned for conferences,lecturing,or extension of original econometric studies.Jointly with Michio Morishima and Shinichi Ichimura,I started International Economic Review which serves as a combined publishing effort of Osaka University and the University of Pennsylvania.

A committee of the Social Science Research Council(Economic Stability——later adding“Growth”to the title)looked into the question,in 1959,of building a superior short-run econometric model of the United States.I participated fully in that venture as a principal investigator[11],and the project continued for more than 10 years.While no working model survived this research decade,many new results and procedures were uncovered that shaped my whole course of research for some time to come.The parallel development with the series of Wharton models continued and benefitted from the transference of research results from the SSRC project,which had,meanwhile,moved to the Brookings Institution.

The SSRC committee turned attention from team research for building a model of the United States to doing one for world trade in order to investigate the international transmission[12]mechanism[13].Project LINK was created at a meeting at Stanford in 1968.I shared responsibilities[14]as principal investigator with Bert Hickman of Stanford,Rudolf Rhomberg of the International Monetary Fund and Aaron Gordon of the University of California.That project became an international cooperative venture,with the central coordinating facility and software located at the University of Pennsylvania.Project LINK is still thriving after more than a decade by adding new countries,new economic processes and a longer time horizon.As in the case of the Brookings-SSRC Model Project for the U.S.,Project LINK created a great deal of related and incremental[15]research by enabling countries to initiate econometric model building projects,by extending“best practice”research to various centers,and by showing official international bodies how to interrelate[16]different parts of the world economy.

Visits to Israel to lecture at Hebrew University and to Vienna to lecture at the Institute for Advanced Studies laid the foundations for repeated return visits,in the former case as a board member of the Falk Institute for Research in Economics,and in the latter,as a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Institute for Advanced Studies.I have had additional reasons for visiting Austria to participate on the research program of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis.

My latest research efforts have been devoted to bringing new participants into the LINK Project,modeling the centrally-planned economies of the world(especially the U.S.S.R.),introducing modern econometrics[17]into the People's Republic of China,and expanding the activities of the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates where I presently serve as a professional consultant.

Over the years,I have often consulted with public officials on economic matters,both domestic and foreign,including international bodies.On several occasions I have provided public testimony[18]at hearings but I have remained in academia[19]and have not taken permanent positions in government.From my student days,the concept of public service and the relationship of theoretical economics or econometrics to real world problems has appealed to me,and I have tried to follow the footsteps of my teachers in practicing economics in this way.

My wife and I have four children——Hannah,following a scientific career as a Ph.D.geneticist[20];Rebecca,as a teacher;Rachel,as an editor;and Jonathan,as a computer programmer.

【注释】

[1]retrospectively adv.回顾地(https://www.daowen.com)

[2]analytical adj.分析的,解析的

[3]speculative adj.投机的

[4]interrelationship n.相互关系[联系,影响],干扰

[5]econometrics n.经济计量学

[6]veritable adj.真正的

[7]galaxy n.星系,银河,一群显赫的人,一系列光彩夺目的东西

[8]dissertation n.(学位)论文,专题,论述,学术演讲

[9]quantitative adj.数量的,定量的

[10]enterprise n.企业,事业,计划,事业心,进取心,干事业

[11]investigator n.调查人

[12]transmission n.播送,发射,传动,传送,传输,转播

[13]mechanism n.机械装置,机构,机制

[14]responsibility n.责任,职责

[15]incremental adj.增加的

[16]interrelate v.(使)相互关联

[17]econometrics n.经济计量学

[18]testimony n.证词(尤指在法庭所作的),宣言,陈述

[19]academia n.学术界,学术环境

[20]geneticist n.遗传学者