第10篇 The Research of Sustainable Development Evalu...
参赛队员：江雨春,孙佳辉,狄恩彪
指导老师：周华任
获奖情况：2015年国际大学生数学建模竞赛一等奖(Meritorious Winner)
Summary：For the evaluation of the sustainable development of a country,we develop the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSlR)model.ln this model,we establish a three-level indicator system,including primary indicators,secondary indicators,tertiary indicators,from five aspects of driving force,pressure,state,impact,response.33 tertiary indicators are selected to build an evaluation model for the ecological carrying capacity.AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)is used to determine the weights of indicators.And the integrated ecological carrying capacity is regarded as the standard to evaluate the sustainable development of the country.
To define the boundary between sustainable development and unsustainable development,we first select 10 countries in the world acknowledged as the most sustainable development and 10 countries,the least sustainable development,and use our model to get the boundary value between sustainable development and unsustainable development.We also build a method to assess the impact of each indicator on the sustainable development of the country a ccording to the importance relativity of indicators and the gap between the value and the average level.
We select Haiti from the United Nations list of the 48 Least Developed Countries(LDC)list.Based on DPSlR model,we use the auto-regression model in time series analysis to make predictions after 20 years.We also take the random factors into consideration and make predictions on the development after 20 years.
For the 20-year sustainable development plan of Haiti,by technology roadmap method,we select three major factors affecting the sustainable development of the country—Economy Developments,Community Vulnerability,Local Environmental Quality,and develop a 20-year sustainable development Roadmap.
To evaluate the impact of our 20-year sustainability plan on Haiti,we respectively consider the effect of natural disaster and international disaster aid on the sustainable development,and make further discussion on the prediction model we have established.Then the predictions made by the modified model are used to evaluate and analysis the sustainability of Haiti.
We have concluded that the best way to maintain the sustainable development of Haiti is to flexibly adjust the international disaster aid,increase the ability to resist natural disasters by the sensitivity analysis.
Finally,we also conduct a sensitivity analysis of factors that may affect our results,including the selection of indicators and the weights of indicators,and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our model.
Key words：lndicator system;DPSlR model;sustainable development;technology roadmap method