第8篇 Control the Antibiotic to Save More Lives
参赛队员：李一辰,陈捷,周炳汕
指导老师：周华任
获奖情况：2016年第五届“认证杯”数学建模国际赛特等奖(Outstanding Winner)
Summary：Also known as antimicrobial drugs,antibiotics have saved countless lives.Misuse and overuse of these drugs,however,have contributed to a phenomenon known as antibiotic resistance.Control of the abuse of antibiotics becomes the imperative to solve the problem of super bacteria.
To solve the problem of the antibiotic abuse,we establish the interest chain to analyze the source of the antibiotic abuse.Then we use the comprehensive competition model to confirm the damage of the antibiotic abuse.Finally,we give several suggestions to the government to better manage the circulation of antibiotics.
To task 1,according to the general drug distribution process,we establish the interest chain for use of antibiotics.Then,we use the correlation coefficient matrix to analyze the dynamic factors to the interest chain.One of the innovation is that we use the benefit of each parties to represent the the sensitivity to the interest chain.
To task 2,we establish the Markov chain model to predict the trend of the number of patients with time.Then,we choose 5 years to be a period of the antibiotic's circulation.By using the correlation matrix and taking the hysteresis effect into account,we get the development trend of antibiotics in the perfectly competitive market.
To task 3,based on the comprehensive competition model in task 2,we give some reward policies on the perspective of the government.
To task 4,after referring to the related articles and study,we give the farmers reward policy to encourage them use antibiotics less.
This paper take many dynamic factors into consideration,and analyze the correlation between these factors.ln practical application the models obtain better adjustability.
Key words：antibiotic control;dynamic interest chain;comprehensive competition model;linear correlation matrix