公共舆论何时能以及何时不能被忽略

更新于 2026年10月13日 版权声明
公共舆论何时能以及何时不能被忽略

公共舆论并没有像多元主义者经常所声称的那么重要。在外交和国防议题上,它被人拿捏摆弄;在国内经济议题上,它被人忽略;在社会议题上,它对权力精英无关紧要,除非是作为拉票的手段。尽管在他们日常生活所限的情境和时间里,我们的确可以感知到人们的态度,但是,在企业共同体所关心的大多数复杂立法议题上,任何带有清晰目标的公共舆论都不太可能发出自己的声音。因此,权力精英和政治家在大部分政策问题上拥有充分的回旋余地。

公共舆论经常被忽略是因为人们的信念并不必然导致他们去采取反对或破坏性行动,如果他们在社会中有固定的角色需要去完成,又或者他们没有看到什么清晰的组织化途径可以实现社会变迁的话。要想解释人们为何默认权力精英的政策,而不是试图去影响公共舆论,一个更加重要的因素是,人们要想采取行动,就得打破他们已经习惯了的“痛并快乐着”的日常生活——其中的关键,则是工作和家庭。经济和政治生活中发生了什么,比舆论塑造过程中和大众媒体上说了什么,对人们如何行动有着更大的影响。[57]

不过,当人们在萧条、战争或其他形式的社会破坏下被迫走出他们的小天地时,公共舆论也可能产生影响。在这些情况下,公共舆论可以导致一场强有力的社会运动,从而威胁到既有秩序的某个方面,这反过来又使权力精英们寻找维持社会稳定的解决之道。转化为社会运动的公共舆论同样也可以为公司活动设置界限,特别是当出现了大的事故,比如石油泄漏、煤矿爆炸或核工厂故障时。[58]

尽管针对公共舆论的研究表明,权力精英有很大的自由度来照他们希望的那样运作,但在某个重要的层面,这一结论却是不完全的:它没有考虑到公共舆论通过竞选过程可能发挥的潜在效力。

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