处于路径依赖与变化之间的欧盟邻国政策
相比欧盟的扩大政策，欧盟邻国政策既有对前者的路径依赖，也作出了一些新的变化。由于外交政策的成功高度依赖于政策工具的适当性，因此欧盟邻国政策的适当性、创新性和灵活性如何，将在很大程度上决定该项政策能否实现预期目标。
欧盟内部普遍存在一种乐观主义，即认为扩大政策的基本逻辑可以运用到一个注定会导致不同结果的政策中。值得思考的是，欧盟邻国政策的条件性原则在缺乏成员资格作为激励的情况下会起作用吗？如果入盟的前景从一开始就被排除，ENP国家可能没有足够的动力进行国内的政治、经济、社会等各领域的改革。欧盟邻国政策被看作是一个扩大模式的低配版，而欧盟针对邻国需要去应对的挑战，就其复杂性和地缘政治的分裂程度来说，却达到了空前的高度。
自2003年出台以来，欧盟邻国政策的执行已经有较长一段时间了。2007年后，虽然在制度建设方面得到了一些改善，但该项政策在概念上的模糊性和政策工具上的不适当性仍然存在。然而，迄今还没有证据显示欧盟委员会内部会从根本上修订这项政策的路径或对其进行重新定位。欧盟邻国政策的失败将会对欧盟作为一个全球战略行为体的信誉产生重要影响，并损害它的国际地位和降低国际社会对它的认可。正如德国前外交部长费舍尔2007年的一次声明中指出：“当欧洲为它的制度改革和对外政策问题争吵时，世界并不会等待欧洲。”[47]2008年以来，欧盟自身及周边地区的局势发生了很大的变化，包括欧债危机、一体化停滞、俄格战争、叙利亚内战、乌克兰问题、英国脱欧等。这些局势的变化及其产生的后果，很好地印证了费舍尔的观点。
【注释】
[1]Paul Pierson，“Increasing Returns，Path Dependence，and the Study of Politics”，American Political Science Review，Vol.94，No.2，June 2000，pp.251－266.
[2]Romano Prodi，“A Wider Europe－A Proximity Policy as the Key to Stability”，Speech at the 6th ECSAWorld Conference in Brussels，5－6 December 2002.
[3]Marise Cremona，“The European Neighbourhood Policy：Legal and Institutional Issues”，CDDRL Working Papers，（25），November 2004，p.4.
[4]Judith Kelley，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Policy Adaptation in The European Neighbourhood Policy”，Journal of Common Market Studies，Vol.44，No.1，March 2006.
[5]I.Johanston，“Treating International Institutions as Social Environments”，I nternational Studies Quarterly，4：2001，p.488.
[6]Maruis Vahl，“Model for the European Neighbourhood Policy.The European Economic Area and the Northern Dimension”，in CEPS Working Document，No.218，February 2005，p.15.
[7]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，Journal of Common Market Studies，Vol.44，No.1，2006，p.39.
[8]Ibid.，p.32.
[9]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，p.33.
[10]European Commission，Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament，Wider Europe—Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，Brussels，11 March 2003，COM（2003）104 final，p.16.
[11]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，pp.35－36.
[12]European Commission，Communication from the Commission，European Neighbourhood Policy—Strategy Paper，COM（2004）373 final，Brussels，12 May 2004，p.8.
[13]European Commission，Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on Strenthening the European Neighbourhood Policy，COM（2006）726 final，Brussels，4 December 2006.
[14]Danuta Hübner，“Post-Enlargement EU Policy towards Eastern Europe”，Speech to the Wider Europe Seminar，Sussex European Institute，4－5 June，2004.
[15]European Commission，Communication from the Commission，European Neighbourhood Policy—Strategy Paper，COM（2004）373 final，Brussels，12 May 2004，p.13.
[16]European Commission，Communication from the Commission，European Neighbourhood Policy—Strategy Paper，COM（2004）373 final，Brussels，12 May 2004.
[17]本节对制度学习的分析基于Watts et al.给出的定义：“制度学习是一个通过思考和再构造已经学习到的教训来改变行为和改善表现。它被这些假定驱动，即改善表现要求一种审慎的和批判的自我意识的精神以及在组织内反思性学习的开放性文化，一种鼓励识别出更不成功的路径来帮助在目标、战略和方法上的直接变化。”参见：J.Watts/D.Mackay/D.Horton/A.Hall/B.Douthwaite/R.Chambers/A.Acosta：Institutional Learning and Change.An Introduction.ISNAR Discussion Paper 3：2003.The Hague：Online publication www.ciat.cgiar.org（25 July 2008），p.3.
[18]European Commission，Wider Europe—Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，op.cit.，p.6.
[19]D.Ellison，“Divide and Conquer.The European Union Enlargement's Successful Conclusion？”The International Studies Review，1：2006，p.159.
[20]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，p.36.
[21]European Commission，Wider Europe—Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，op.cit.，p.16.
[22]Ibid，p.17.(https://www.daowen.com)
[23]European Commission，Communication from the Commission，European Neighbourhood Policy—Strategy Paper，COM（2004）373 final，Brussels，12 May 2004，p.3.
[24]European Commission，Communication from the Commission.Paving the Way for a New Neighbourhood Instrument，COM（2003）393，1 July 2003.
[25]自2007年1月1日以来，ENPI代替了所有现存的项目，包括Interreg、Phare、Cards以及Tacis和Meda。新的金融工具的官方名称已经从“新邻区工具”（NNI）转变成“欧盟邻国和伙伴关系工具”（ENPI），以表明包括俄罗斯。即使俄罗斯决定不成为总的欧盟睦邻政策的一部分，而是代之以选择与欧盟的不同的但实际上相似战略伙伴关系，ENPI也已经被扩展到俄罗斯伙伴了。
[26]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，p.41.
[27]Gianni Bonvicini，“The European Neighbourhood Policy and its Linkage with European Security”，in F.Tassinari/P.Joenniemi/U.Jakobsen（eds.），Wider Europe.Nordic and Baltic lessons to Post-Enlargement Europe，Copenhagen：Danish Institute for International Studies，2006，p.26.
[28]European Commission，Wider Europe-Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，op.cit.
[29]Judith Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，p.41.
[30]Romano Prodi，“A Wider Europe-A Proximity Policy as the Key to Stability”，Speech at the 6th ECSAWorld Conference in Brussels，2002.
[31]European Commission，Wider Europe-Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，op.cit.，p.10.
[32]Sandra Lavenex＆Frank Schimmelffnnig，＂Relations with the Wider Europe＂，Journal of Common Market Studies，Annual Review：2006，p.143.
[33]J.Kelly，“New Wine in Old Wineskins：Promoting Political Reforms through the New European Neighbourhood Policy”，op.cit.，p.36.
[34]Sandra Lavenex＆Frank Schimmelffnnig，＂Relations with the Wider Europe＂，Journal of Common Market Studies，Annual Review：2006，p.138.
[35]Romano Prodi，“A Wider Europe-A Proximity Policy as the Key to Stability”，Speech at the 6th ECSAWorld Conference in Brussels，2002.
[36]European Commission，Wider Europe-Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，op.cit.，p.5.
[37]R.Youngs，“Normative Dynamics and Strategic Interest in the EU's External Identity”，Journal of Common Market Studies，2：2004，p.417.I.Neumann，“European Identity，EU Expansion，and the Integration/Exclusion Nexus”，in L.Cederman（ed.），Constructing Europe's Identity.The External Dimension，Boulder，CO：Lyenne Rienner，2001，p.150.
[38]S.Lavenex，“EU External Governance in‘Wider Europe'”，Journal of European Public Policy，4：2004，p.681.
[39]Ibid，p.402.
[40]有关对欧盟面临的这种双重挑战的讨论，可参见：O.Rehn，Europe's Next Frontiers，Baden-Baden：Nomos，2006.
[41]European Union，A Secure Europe in a Better World—the European Security Strategy，Brussels，12 December 2003，p.1.http：//www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/78367.pdf
[42]European Commission，Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament，Wider Europe-Neighbourhood：A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours，COM（2003）104 final，Brussels，11 March 2003.
[43]European Commission，Communication from the Commission，Europe in the World.Some Practical Proposals for Greater Coherence，Effectiveness and Visibility，COM（2006）2788 June 2006.
[44]M.Cremona/C.Hillion，“L'Union fait la Force？Potential and limitations of the European Neighbourhood Policy as an integrated EU foreign and security policy”，in Sussex European Institute Seminar Paper Series，1：2006，p.22.
[45]DOS 78367/2003，“A Secure Europe in a Better World.European Security Strategy”，12 December 2003，p.1.
[46]Christopher Hill，“The Capability-Expectation Gap，or Conceptualizing Europe's International Role”，in Journal of Common Market Studies，Vol.31，No.3，1993，p.315.
[47]J.Fischer，2007，statement on the international role of the EU，reproduced by H.MAHONY，“Europe is Increasingly Fading Away”，in EU Observer，30 March 2007.http：//euobserver.com/9/23803/？rk＝1.