—注释—
THE ONLY GAME INTOWN
第二章 当今世界唯一的主导力量
1.Christian Noyer，“Central Banking：The Way Forward？，”opening speech to the International Symposium of the Banque de France，November 7，2014，https://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfgrandesdates/Allocutionouverture-Noyer-Symposium-7112014-EN.pdf.
2.Richard Milne，“Denmark Highlights Naked Truth About Negative Lending，”Financial Times，April 8，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7f4e2f4c-dde3-11e4-9d29-00144feab7de.html.
3.Ben S.Bernanke，“The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy，”speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium in Jackson Hole，Wyoming，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank，August 27，2010，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm.4.I first came across this term，attributed to a“senior Citigroup executive，”in Landon Thomas，Jr.，and Neil Gough，“Swiss MovePrompts Fears of Sustained Market Tumult，”New York Times，January 16，2015，http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/currency-traders-rattled-in-wake-of-swiss-central-bank-move.
第三章 央行的沟通挑战
1.“Quarterly Review，”media briefing by Claudio Bario，head of the Monetary and Economic Department，and Hyun Shin，economic adviser and head of research，Bank for International Settlements，December 5，2014，http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qtl412_ontherecord.htm.
2.“Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets，”Financial Times，December 14，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
3.Alan Greenspan interview with Maria Bartiromo，CNBC，September 17，2007.
4.Joseph M.Bessette and John J.Pitney，Jr.，American Government and Politics：Deliberation，Democracy，and Citizenship（Andover，MA：Cengage Learning，2011）.
5.“Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets.”Financial Times，December 14，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64dlc072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
6.Neil Irwin，“The Goal of 2%Inflation，Rethought，”New York Times，December 21，2014，http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html.
7.“Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets，”Financial Times，December 14，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d 1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
8.Nicholas Lemann，“The Hand on the Lever，”New Yorker，July 2014.
9.Binyamin Appelbaum，“Q.and A.With Charles Plosser of the Fed：Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later，”New York Times，January 30，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.
10.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Why This Market Rally Is So Unloved，”Bloomberg View，September 2，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-02/why-this-market-rally-is-so-unloved.
11.Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum，“A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank，”New York Times，January 3，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.
12.Janet Yellen，“Monetary Policy and Financial Stability，”speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington，D.C.，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，July 2，2014，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.
第四章 谈谈这本书的条理
1.Andrew G.Haldane，“Growing，Fast and Slow，”speech at the University of East Anglia，Norwich，England，February 17，2015，http://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，When Markets Collide：Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change（New York：McGraw-Hill，2008）.
第二部分 央行的上升、崩溃和复苏
1.Martin Wolf，“We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms，”Financial Times，October 8，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/la9f058e-4d43-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Lfv9pY4D.For a detailed analysis，see Martin Wolf，The Shifts and the Shocks：What We Have Learned—and Have Still to Learn—rom the Financial Crisis（New York：Penguin Press，2014）.
第五章 央行的黄金时代以及“似泡非泡的金融”
1.Joan Robinson，“The Economics of Hyperinflation，”Economic Journal 48（September 1938）.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，When Markets Collide：Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change（New York：McGraw-Hill，2008）.
3.For an insightful discussion of this and more，please see Raghuram G.Rajan，Fault Lines：How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy（Princeton，NJ：Princeton University Press，2010）.
4.“Paul Krugman：Here Are 5 Big Things Paul Krugman Says He Got Wrong Over the Years，”Business Insider，November 2014，http://www.business insider.com/big-things-paul-krugman-got-wrong-economy-2014-11.
5.William C.Dudley，“Economics at the Federal Reserve，”remarks at the American Economic Association 2014 Annual Meeting，Philadelphia，http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud 140104.html.
6.Atef Mian and Amir Sufi，House of Debt：How They（and You）Caused the Great Recession，and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，2014）.
7.Mark Carney，“Inclusive Capitalism：Creating a Sense of the New Systemic，”speech at the Conference on Inclusive Capitalism，London，May 27，2014，http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech731.pdf.
第六章 连锁故障
1.Michiyo Nakamoto and David Wighton，“Bullish Citigroup Is‘Still Dancing’to the Beat of the Buyout Boom，”Financial Times，July 10，2007，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5cefc794-2e7d-11dc-821 c-0000779fd2ac.html.
2.As late as September 2014，the popular media was still on this point.As an example，the money section of the September 18 edition of USA Today included the headline“Fed Sings Wall Streets Tune.”And the drivers of the accusation，both real and perceived，went well beyond what former Treasury secretary Geithner noted in his memoir，Stress Test，that“the optics of the institution's governance are awful.The Fed has always been vulnerable to perceptions of capture by the big banks.”
3.Robin Harding，“Transcripts Reveal Drama and Fear as Fed Confronted Lehman's Implosion，”Financial Times，February 21，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec1c3a5a-9b0f-1 1e3-946b-00144feab7de.html.
4.Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan，“Fed Feared Japan-Scale Crisis in 2009，”Financial Times，March 5，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d77aff2c-c28d-11 e4-ad89-00144feab7de.html.
5.Jeremie Cohen-Setton，“The 2008 FOMC Transcripts：Did the Committee Obsess over the Wrong Crisis and the Performance of Key Personalities，”Bruegel Blog Review，March 3，2014，http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1258-blogs-review-the-2008-fomc-transcripts/.
6.“A Desperate Plea—Then the Race for a Deal Before‘Sucker Goes Down，’“Guardian，September 26，2008，http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/27/wallstreet.useconomy1.
7.Neal Collins，“Archaic BoE Was Ill-Equipped to Prevent Financial Crisis，”Financial Times，January 9，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3db1f52-9752-11e4-845a-00144feabdc0.html.
8.Joshua Zumbrun and Alaa Shahine，“Retired Bernanke Harbors Regret on Main Street's View of Bailout，”Bloomberg News，March 4，2014，http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-04/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-seeing-progress.html.
9.Timothy F.Geithner，Stress Test：Reflections on Financial Crises（New York：Crown，2014）.
第七章 央行的复苏
1.Mario Draghi，speech to the Global Investment Council，European Central Bank，July 26，2012，http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html.
2.Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum，“A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank，”New York Times，January 3，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.
3.Philip Turner，“The Exit from Non-Conventional Monetary Policy：What Challenges？，”BIS Working Paper 448，2014，May，http://www.bis.org/publ/work448.pdf.
4.“Monetary Policy Struggles to Normalize，”BIS Annual Report，June 29，2014，Bank for International Settlements，http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e5.htm.
5.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Parsing Draghi's QE Gambit，”Bloomberg View，January 23，2015，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/parsing-draghi-s-qe-gambit.See also Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The ECB Can Only Buy Time for Europes Politicians，”Financial Times，January 22，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/957b9ddc-a241-1 1 e4-bbb8-00144feab7de.html.
6.Tracy Alloway，“Markets'Misplaced Faith in Central Banks，”Financial Times，January 23，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2ad516fa-a2d4-1 1 e4-ac 1 c-00144feab7de.html.
7.Hyman Minsky，“The Financial Instability Hypothesis，”Working Paper No.74，Levy Economics Institute of Bard College，1992.
8.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Beware of Calls for QE4，”Financial Times，October 17，2014，http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/10/17/beware-of-calls-for-qe4/.
9.Chris Giles，“Carney Warns on Low Interest Rates，”Financial Times，January 24，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c20266fe-a3fb-11e4-b90d-00144feab7de.html.
10.Timothy F.Geithner，Stress Test：Reflections on Financial Crises（New York：Crown，2014）.
第八章 奠定基础
1.Jim Grant，“Monetary Policy Is a Virus That Infects Politics，”Financial Times，January 5，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14078740-9277-11 e4-a 1 fd-00144feabdc0.html.
2.“The World Economy：In Need of New Oomph，”Economist，May 24，2014，http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21602698-how-make-rich-worlds-recovery-stronger-and-safer-need-new-oomph.
3.“In Search of a New Compass，”Bank for International Settlements，June 29，2014，http://www.bis.org/pub1/arpdf/ar2014e1.htm.
4.E.S.Browning，“The‘Investor's Dilemma：Everything Is Expensive，”Wall Street Journal，August 24，2014，http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/24/the-investors-dilemma-everything-is-expensive/.
5.Lawrence H.Summers，“Reflection on the‘New Secular Stagnation Hypotheses，’”in Coen Tuelings and Richard Baldwin，eds.，Secular Stagnation：Facts，Causes，and Cures（London：CEPR Press，2014），http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Vox_secular_stagnation.pdf.
第九章 一代人的挑战
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Global Growth Quest，”Project Syndicate，April 9，2013，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-worldwide-search-for-new-growth-models-by-mohamed-a--el-erian.
2.Matt O'Brien，“Greece's Poor Are Back to Where They Were in 1980，”Washington Post，April 10，2015，http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk blog/wp/2015/04/10/greeces-poor-are-back-to-where-they-were-in-1980/.
3.“Mohamed A.El-Erian Discusses PIMCO's Secular Outlook and Investment Implications，”Economic Outlook，PIMCO，May 2009，http://europe.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Secular%200utlook%20Q%20and%20 A%20May%202009%20El-Erian.aspx.
4.Jim Pearce，“The New Normal—Six Years Later，”Investing Daily，January 30，2015，http://www.investingdaily.com/22053/the-new-normal-six-years-later-2/.
5.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The‘New Normal’and Its Consequential Morphing，”Journal of Indexes，November 22，2013，http://europe.etf.com/europe/publications/journal-of-indexes/articles/9398-the-new-normal-and-its-consequential-morphing.html？start=6&Itemid=200.
6.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“‘The New Normal’Has Been Devastating for America，”Business Insider，March 22，2014，http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-state-of-the-new-normal-2014-3.
7.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Europe Must Pay Heed to Japan's New Slide，”Bloomberg View，November 18，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-18/europe-must-pay-heed-to-japans-new-slide.
8.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Could America Turn Out Worse than Japan？，”Reuters，October 31，2011，http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/10/31/could-america-tum-out-worse-than-japan-2/.
9.Lawrence H.Summers，“U.S.Economic Prospects：Secular Stagnation，Hysteresis，and the Zero Lower Bound，”Business Economics 49，no.2（2014），http://larrysummers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NABE-speech-Lawrence-H.-Summers1.pdf.
10.Christine Lagarde，“The Challenge Facing the Global Economy：New Momentum to Overcome a New Mediocre，”speech to Georgetown University School of Foreign Service，October 2，2014，http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/100214.htm.
11.Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrota，“A Model of Secular Stagnation，”NBER Working Paper No.20574，National Bureau of Economic Research，April 2014，http://www.nber.org/papers/w20574.pdf.
12.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Confronting Persistent U.S.Economic Slump，”Bloomberg View，April 21，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-21/confronting-the-u-s-economic-slump.
13.Martin Wolf，“Why America Is Going to Win the Global Currency Battle，”Financial Times，October 12，2010，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fe45eeb2-d644-11 df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html.
14.Janet Yellen，“Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery，”speech to the Economic Club of New York，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，April 16，2014，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140416a.htm.
15.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Trial by Fire：What Crises Lie in Wait for Janet Yellen，”Foreign Policy，January 7，2014，http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/07/trial-by-fire/.
16.Raghuram Rajan，“Global Policy：A View from Emerging Markets，”Brookings Institution，video，April 10，2014，http://www.brookings.edu/events/2014/04/10-global-monetary-policy-view-from-emerging-markets.
17.See，for example，“The BIS Quarterly Review for December 2014：Buoyant Yet Fragile？，”December 7，2014，Bank for International Settlements，http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qtl412.htm.
18.Michael Chui，Ingo Fender，and Vladyslav Sushko，“Risks Related to EME Corporate Balance Sheets：The Role of Leverage and Currency Mismatch，”Bank for International Settlements，2014，http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1409fpdf.
第十章 降低失业风险演变成无法就业
1.Stanley Fischer，The Great Recession：Moving Ahead，”speech to conference sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve，August 11，2014，http://www.federalreserve.gov/news events/speech/fischer20140811a.htm.
第十一章 不平等的三连胜
1.“Focus on Inequality and Income，”Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development，Directorate for Employment，Labor and Social Affairs，December 2014，http://www.oecd.org/social/Focus-Inequality-and-Growth-2014.pdf.
2.Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman，“Wealth Inequality in the US Since 1913，”NBER Working Paper No.20615，October 2014.
3.Estelle Sommiller and Mark Price，“The Increasingly Unequal Income States of America，”Economic Policy Institute，January 26，2015，http://www.epi.org/publication/income-inequality-by-state-1917-to-2012/.
4.“17 Things We Learned About Income Inequality in 2014，”Atlantic，December 23，2014，http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/17-things-we-learned-about-income-inequality-in-2014/383917/.
5.Federal Reserve Board of Governors，“Changes in US Family Finances from 2010 to 2013：Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances，”Federal Reserve Bulletin 100，no.4（September 2014），http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf.
6.Rakesh Kochhar and Richard Fry，“Wealth Inequality Has Widened Along Racial，Ethnic Lines Since the End of the GreatRecession，”Pew Research Center，December 12，2014，http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealth-gaps-great-recession/.
7.Thomas Piketty，Capital in the Twenty-First Century（Cambridge，MA：Belknap Press of Harvard University Press，2014）.
8.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Inequality Trifecta，”Project Syndicate，October 17，2014，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-world-bank-annual-meetings-and-inequality-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2014-10.
9.Madeline Ostrander，“What Poverty Does to the Young Brain，”New Yorker，June 4，2015，http://www.newyorkercom/tech/elements/what-poverty-does-to-the-young-brain.
10.Frank Bruni，“Class，Cost and College，”New York Times，May 17，2014，http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/opinion/sunday/bruni-class-cost-and-college.html.
11.McKinsey Global Institute，“QE and Ultra-Low Rates，”2013.
第十二章 持续的信任赤字
1.Ian Fraser，Shredded：Inside RBS，the Bank That Broke Britain（Edinburgh：Birlinn，2014）.
2.Joshua Zumbrun and Alaa Shahine，“Retired Bernanke Harbors Regret on Main Street's View of Bailout，”Bloomberg News，March 4，2014，http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-04/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-seeing-progress.html.
3.Timothy F.Geithner，Stress Test：Reflections on Financial Crises（New York：Crown，2014）.
4.Binyamin Appelbaum，“Yellen Says Restraining the Fed's Oversight Would Be a‘Grave Mistake，’”New York Times，July 16，2014，http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/business/yellen-says-constraining-fed-would-be-a-grave-mistake.html.
5.Panel discussion remarks quoted in Jeff Kearns，“Fed's$4 Trillion Assets Draw Lawmaker Ire Amid Bubble Concerns，”Bloomberg News，December 17，2013，http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/fed-s-4-trillion-assets-draw-lawmaker-ire-amid-bubble-concern.html.
6.Ibid.
7.Peter Eavis，“New York Fed Is Criticized on Oversight，”November 21，2014，http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/new-york-fed-chief-faces-withering-criticism-at-senate-hearing.
8.Liz Alderman，“Netherlands Asks Bankers to Swear to God，”New York Times，December 12，2014，http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/netherlands-asks-bankers-to-swear-to-god.
9.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Threat to the Central Bank Brand，”Project Syndicate，June 4，2013，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-growing-risk-to-central-bankers--credibility-by-mohamed-a--el-erian.
10.Guy Kawasaki，Enchantment：The Art of Changing Hearts，Minds，and Actions（New York：Penguin Books，2012）.
第十三章 国家政治失灵
1.“The Great Fracturing，”Economist，February 21，2015，http://www.econo mist.com/news/leaders/21644147-britains-slide-six-party-politics-presages-instability-and-crisis-legitimacy-great.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“I Don't Know What Will Happen If We Default，and I Don't Want to Find Out，”Atlantic，October 10，2013，http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/i-dont-know-what-will-happen-if-we-default-and-i-dont-want-to-find-out/280467/.
3.For an insightful discussion of the various components of this balancing act，see Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen，The New Digital Age：Reshaping the Future of People，Nations and Business（London：John Murray，2014）.
4.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Very Messy Politics of Economic Divergence，”Project Syndicate，March 2015，http://www.project-syndicate.org/com mentary/economic-divergence-global-politics-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-03.
第十四章“零国集团”现象以及国际经济的无体系化趋势
1.The term was coined more than ten years ago by Jim O'Neil，Goldman Sachs's chief economist at that time.It now refers to the grouping of countries consisting of Brazil，Russia，India，China，and South Africa.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Real Message of the BRICS Summit，”Bloomberg View，July 17，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-17/the-real-message-of-the-brics-summit.
3.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“U.S.Opposition to Asian Bank Is Self-Destructive，”Bloomberg View，March 31，2015，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-31/el-erian-u-s-opposition-to-asia-bank-is-self-destructive.(https://www.daowen.com)
4.Richard Dobbs，James Manyika，and Jonathan Woetzel，No Ordinary Disruption：The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends（New York：Public-Affairs，2015）.
5.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Is the World Bank Losing Asia？，”Bloomberg View，July 10，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-10/is-the-world-bank-losing-asia.
第十五章 金融风险的转移与变形
1.See，for example，the December 9 press release by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20141209a.htm.
2.Greg Ip，“Post-Crisis Risk Casts a Darkening Shadow，”Wall Street Journal，April 8，2015，http://www.wsj.com/articles/post-crisis-risk-casts-a-darkening-shadow-1428499827.
3.Brad Jones，“Asset Bubbles：Rethinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management，”IMF Working Paper，February 2015，http://www.imf.org/extemal/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1527.pdf.
4.Jaime Caruana，“Macro-Prudential Policies：Opportunities and Challenges，”speech to the Tenth High-Level Meeting for the Middle East and North Africa，Bank for International Settlements，December 9，2014，http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp141219.pdf.
5.Banque de France，“Macroprudential Policies：Implementation and Interactions，”Financial Stability Review，April 2014.
6.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“3 Steps to Remove Financial System Risk，”Harvard Business School，August 15，2007，http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5745.html.
7.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Creative Self-Disruption，”Project Syndicate，April 7，2015，https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/consumer-sharing-economy-adaptation-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-04.
8.Steve Lohr，“Banking Start-ups Adopt New Tools for Lending，”New York Times，January 19，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/technology/banking-start-ups-adopt-new-tools-for-lending.html.
9.For full disclosure，I have been recently involved in one of these efforts—“Payoff”—as an investor and board member of a start-up seeking to improve the financial services offered to households and small businesses.
第十六章 流动性幻觉
1.Tracy Alloway and Michael MacKenzie，“Anatomy of a Market Meltdown，”Financial Times，November 18，2014，http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cac64efe-6b34-11e4-ae52-00144feabdc0.html.
2.Jamie Dimon，“Annual Letter to Shareholders，”JPMorgan Chase，April 2015，http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/15660259x0x820077/8af78e45-1d81-4363-931c-439d04312ebc/JPMC-AR2014-LetterToShare holders.pdf.
3.William Finkbarr Flynn and Takako Taniguchi，“Prudential Chief Echoes Dimon Saying Liquidity Is Top Worry，”Bloomberg News，April 13，2015，http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/prudential-chief-says-biggest-worry-is-liquidity-echoing-dimon.
4.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Market‘Sucking Sounds’Are Getting Louder as Four Forces Come Together，”Business Insider，June 11，2013，http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-on-the-liquidity-gap-2013-6.
5.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Is the Market Confident or Too Complacent？，”Bloomberg View，June 9，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-09/is-the-market-confident-or-too-complacent.
第十七章 弥合资本与基本面之间的鸿沟
1.Jim Puzzanghera，“Yellen Upbeat About Growth in the Coming Quarter，”Los Angeles Times，May 7，2014，http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-yellen-economy-20140508-storyhtml.
2.Binyamin Appelbaum，“Q.and A.With Charles Plosser of the Fed：Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later，”New York Times，January 30，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.
3.Claire Jones，Robin Wigglesworth，and James Politi，“Fed Fights Back Against‘Feral Hogs，’”Financial Times，June 24，2013，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d8fa63e-dce6-11e2-b52b-00144feab7de.html.
4.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Big Money vs Bernanke：Who's Right About the Economy，”Atlantic，July 3，2013，http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/big-money-vs-bernanke-whos-right-about-the-economy/277548/.
5.Joshua Zumbrun，“Fed Hears Warning That Tightening Policy May Spark Market Tumult，”Bloomberg News，February 28，2014，http://www.bloom berg.com/news/2014-02-28/fed-hears-warning-that-tightening-policy-may-spark-market-tumult.html.
6.Andrew Filardo and Boris Hofmann，“Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound，”BIS Quarterly Review，March 2014，Bank for International Settlements，http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1403f.htm.
7.Robin Harding，“Federal Reserve Dissenter Kocherlakota Attacks New Guidance，”Financial Times，March 21，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1607d9b8-b105-11e3-bbd4-00144feab7de.html.
8.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Here's Why Jeremy Stein's Departure from the Federal Reserve Matters，”Business Insider，April 5，2014，http://www.business insider.com/why-jeremy-steins-departure-is-important-2014-4.
9.Jeremy C.Stein，“Challenges to Monetary Policy Communication，”speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，May 6，2014，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20140506a.htm.A similar point was made by Hyun Song Shin，“Commentary on Robert E.Hall，‘The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound，’”speech delivered at conference on Global Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy，Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City，Jackson Hole，Wyoming，August 22-24，2013.
10.Janet Yellen，“Monetary Policy and Financial Stability，”speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture，International Monetary Fund，Washington，D.C.，July 2，2014，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.
11.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Yellen Lays Out Her Policy Blueprint，”Bloomberg View，July 7，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-07/yellen-lays-out-her-policy-blueprint.
12.Stanley Fischer，“Financial Sector Reform：How Far Are We？，”Martin Feldstein Lecture at the National Bureau of Economic Research，July 10，2014，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，http://www.federal reserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140710a.htm.
13.Jeremy C.Stein，“Overheating in Credit Markets：Origins，Measurement，and Policy Responses，”Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，February 7，2013，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20130207a.htm.
14.Jaime Caruana，“Macro-Prudential Policies：Opportunities and Challenges，”speech to the Tenth High-Level Meeting for the Middle East and North Africa，Bank for International Settlements，December 9，2014，http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp141219.pdf.
15.“Staff Guidance Note on Macro-Prudential Policies，”International Monetary Fund，December 2014，http//www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/110614.pdf.
第十八章 当一个坏社区里的好房子，很难
I.Martin Wolf，“A Rebuff of China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Is Folly，”Financial Times，March 24，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0dff595e-d16a-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“M&A Boom Must Evolve to Create Growth，”Financial Times，August 20，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3b11b24-26c5-11e4-8df5-00144feabdc0.html.
3.Michael MacKenzie and Eric Platt，“US Companies on Course to Return$1 Trillion to Shareholders in 2015，”Financial Times，April 12，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c 1 a34d8-dfa5-1 l e4-a06a-00144feab7de.html.
第十九章 解决十大挑战
1.“Q and A with Charles Plosser，President of the Fed：Raise Interest Rates Sooner Rather than Later，”New York Times，January 30，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.
2.Chris Giles and Ferdinando Giugliano，“Raise Rates or Face‘Devastating Bubbles，’Says Fed Official，”Financial Times，March 23，2015，http://www.ft.oom/intl/cms/s/0/62c65f4c-dl5f-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.
3.Stanley Fischer，“Monetary Policy and the Way Ahead，”speech to the Economic Club of New York，March 23，2015，http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150323a.htm.
第二十章 大政策设计的简化方式
1.Special thanks to Professor Michael Spence，who has been instrumental in helping me think through these issues.
2.The 2015 Economic Report of the President，White House Council of Economic Advisers，February 19，2015，http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/cea_2015_erp.pdf.
3.Michael Spence，“Five Reasons for Slow Growth，”Project Syndicate，September\29，2014，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/slow-economic-growth-reasons-by-michael-spence-2014-12.
4.“The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt，”International Monetary Fund，Washington，D.C.，June 2014，http://www.imforg/external/np/pp/eng/2014/052214a.pdf.
5.See，for example，“Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries（HIPC）Initiative，”IMF Factsheet，Washington，D.C.，September 2014，https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/hipc.htm.
6.Carmen M.Reinhart and Kenneth S.Rogoff，“Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises：Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten，”IMF Working Paper，WP/13/266，December 2013，https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf.
7.“Bleak Words and Difficult Homework from the IMF，”Financial Times，October 5，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/53516aec-4af6-11e4-blbe-00144feab7de.html.
8.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The New Isolationism：Why the World's Richest Countries Can't Work Together，”Atlantic，September 3，2013，http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-new-isolationism-why-the-worlds-richest-countries-cant-work-together/279282/.
第二十一章 当理想性和可行性发生分歧
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Obama Sets Terms of 2016 Debate，”Bloomberg View，January 21，2015，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-21/obama-sets-terms-of-2016-debate.
2.Amartya K.Sen，“Rational Fools：A Critique of the Behavioral Foundations of EconomicTheory，”Philosophy and Public Affairs 6，no.4（Summer 1977），http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2264946？sid=21105866957553&uid=3739256&uid=4&uid=2&uid=3739560.
3.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The 1 Equation Investors Need to Know to Understand the World Today，”Atlantic，May 22，2013，http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/the-l-equation-investors-need-to-know-to-understand-the-world-today/276124/.
第二十二章 把破坏性的复杂转化为可操作的简单
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“What We Need from the IMF/World Bank Meetings，”Financial Times，October 6，2013，http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/10/06/what-we-need-from-the-imfworld-bank-meetings/.
第二十三章 潜在结果分布的“腹部位置”
1.“The World in 2015，”Economist，December 2014.
2.Michael J.Casey，“Flattening Yield Curve Latest Complication for Fed，”Wall Street Journal，April 12，2015，http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/12/flattening-yield-curve-latest-complication-for-fed/？mod=WSJ_hps MIDDLE_Video_Third.
3.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“The Instability in Central Bank Divergence，”Financial Times，February 26，2014，http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/02/26/the-instability-in-central-bank-divergence/.
第二十四章 一个分歧更大的世界（Ⅰ）
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“A Year of Divergence，”Project Syndicate，December 8，2014，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-monetary-policy-divergence-2015-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2014-12.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Missteps and Miscalculations That Could Cost Greece the Euro，”Financial Times，March 25，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a28549d6-d303-11e4-a792-00144feab7de.html.
第二十五章 一个分歧更大的世界（Ⅱ）
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“An Accidental Currency War，”Project Syndicate，February 10，2015，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/monetary-policy-central-bank-activism-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-02；and Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Rising Risk of Currency Market Instability，”Financial Times，August 26，2014，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a82d9c14-2ce4-11e4-911b-00144feabdc0.html.
2.Ben S.Bernanke，“The Logic of Monetary Policy，”remarks by Governor Ben S.Bernanke before the National Economists Club，Washington，D.C.，De
cember 2，2004，http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041202/default.htm.
第二十六章 一个分歧更大的世界（Ⅲ）
DIVERGENCE（Ⅲ）：NON-ECONOMIC，NON-POLICY HEADWINDS
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Greece Can Learn from Brazil and Argentina，”Bloomberg View，January 13，2015，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-13/greece-can-learn-from-brazil-and-argentina.
第二十七章 一个分歧更大的世界（Ⅳ）
1.Daniel Yergin，“Who Will Rule the Oil Market？，”New York Times，January 23，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-the-price-of-oil.html.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Good，Bad and Ugly of Lower Oil Prices，”Bloomberg View，December 1，2014，http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-01/good-bad-and-ugly-of-lower-oil-prices.
3.Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee，The Second Machine Age：Work，Progress，and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies（New York：Norton，2014）.
4.See，for example，Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee，Race Against the Machine：How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation，Driving Productivity，and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy（Lexington，MA：Digital Frontier Press，2011）.
第二十八章 综上所述
1.Richard Dobbs，James Manyika，and Jonathan Woetzel，No Ordinary Disruption：The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends（New York：Public-Affairs，2015）.
2.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Creative Self-Disruption，”Project Syndicate，April 7，2015，http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/consumer-sharing-economy-adaptation-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-04.
第二十九章 历史告诉我们什么
1.Richard Dobbs，James Manyika，and Jonathan Woetzel，No Ordinary Disruption：The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends（New York：Public-Affairs，2015）.
2.Daniel Kahneman，Thinking，Fast and Slow（New York：Farrar，Straus&Giroux，2011）.
3.Lea Wineman，“A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions，”Monitor on Psychology 43，no.2（February 2012）.
4.Daniel Kahneman，Thinking，Fast and Slow（New York：Farrar，Straus&Giroux，2011）.
第三十章 认识盲点，克服偏见
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Remarks at the Launch of USAID's Policy on Gender Equality and Women Empowerment，”PIMCO Viewpoint，March 2012.
2.Mahzarin Banaji and Anthony Greenwald，Blindspot：Hidden Biases of Good People（New York：Random House，2013）.
3.Don Lovallo and Olivier Sabony，“The Case for Behavioral Strategy，”Mc-Kinsey Quarterly，March 2010.
4.Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant，“Speaking While Female，”New York Times，January 12，2015，http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/11/opinion/sunday/speaking-while-female.html.
5.Patricia Sellers，“El-Erian：A Gender Bias Lesson from My Daughter，”Fortune，August 8，2013，http://fortune.com/2013/08/08/el-erian-a-lesson-on-gender-bias-from-my-daughter/.
第三十一章 认知多样性的推进和提高
1.Scott Page，The Difference：How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups，Firms，Schools，and Societies（Princeton，NJ：Princeton University Press，2007）.
2.Scott Page，“Making the Difference：Applying a Logic of Diversity，”Academy of Management Perspectives，November 2007.
3.Scott Page，The Difference：How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups，Firms，Schools and Societies（Princeton，NJ：Princeton University Press，2007）.
4.Scott Page，“Making the Difference：Applying a Logic of Diversity，”Academy of Management Perspectives，November 2007.
5.Mohamed El-Erian，“Why CEOs Should Read Sheryl Sandberg's Book，”Fortune，March 11，2013，http://fortune.com/2013/03/11/why-ceos-should-read-sheryl-sandbergs-lean-in/.
6.Sheryl Sandberg，Lean In：Women，Work，and the Will to Lead（New York：Knopf，2013）.
第三十二章把意识转化为可选性、弹性和灵活性
1.Eric Schmidt and Jonathan Rosenberg，How Google Works（New York：Grand Central，2014）.
2.Ibid.
3.Sheryl Sandberg，Lean In：Women，Work，and the Will to Lead（New York：Knopf，2013）.
4.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Getting Real About Diversity，”American Banker，September 18，2013，http://www.americanbanker.com/magazine/123_10/pimcos-mohamed-el-erian-on-getting-real-about-diversity-1062068-1.html.
第三十三章 情境分析的力量
1.Further information and demonstration tests may be found on the website of Project Implicit，https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/demo/.
2.Gary Klein，“Performing a Project Premortem，”Harvard Business Review，September 2007，https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem.
3.Gary Klein，The Power of Intuition：How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work（New York：Crown Business，2004）.
第三十四章评估流动性
1.Mohamed A.El-Erian，“Global Tug of War Is Focus for Investors，”Financial Times，February 9，2015，http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/le0e8662-ac80-11e4-9d32-00144feab7de.html.
第三十五章 总 结
1.John Maynard Keynes，The General Theory of Employment，Interest，and Money（N.p.：CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform，2014）.
2.Norman Mailer，The Fight（New York：Vintage International，1975）.