Past success, future questions.

The fourth industrial revolution does not necessarily mean a looming jobs crisis. The lesson of economic history is that, in the long run, there will be more jobs, but they will be different jobs. In the Chinese context, middle-wage occupations such as service and construction jobs will likely see substantial job growth. In addition, China’s growing middle-class — a status more than three-quarters of its urban population is likely to achieve in the next five years — will create demand in areas such as health, retail, child care, education, and energy efficiency. All of this will compensate for automation-related employment losses.

But there will be disruptions, and to many people, these will be painful: think of the 40-year-old who has been working for years in, say, a toy factory. That kind of job could well be doomed. The important question, then, is not whether the automation of that job is good or bad or whether automation should be stopped (it won’t). The relevant issue is how well prepared that toy factory worker is to succeed in a new job in health care,or robotics, or whatever.(https://www.daowen.com)

Technological progress is both essential and desirable — and it will be very good for China. Its workforce is aging and shrinking; for China to continue to grow, the economy must become more productive. In 2016, McKinsey estimated that labor productivity in China was only 15 to 30 percent of that of advanced economies. “Too little attention,” it concluded, is “paid to helping workers embrace and adapt to new processes.” Automation can help.

Skills shortages could cost China as much as $250 billion a year by 2020, or 2.3 percent of GDP, according to MGI. As with previous shifts in economic currents, the wise strategy is not to resist the winds of change, but to set a course, adjust the sails,and harness those gusts to go further.