五、结语

五、结语

长期以来，学术界有这样一种流行的观点，即：罗斯福远比杜鲁门熟谙国际事务，更注重大国之间的合作，如果他在1945年4月没有去世的话，美苏同盟关系或许能持续下去，而杜鲁门由于缺乏处理国际事务以及与苏联打交道的经验，没有能很好地解决美苏之间出现的矛盾，特别是在东欧问题上态度僵硬，从而最终导致冷战的发生。^[105]换言之，美国领导人在关键时刻的突然更迭加速了美苏冷战的到来。这种观点或许有一定的道理，但在核政策方面，应该说杜鲁门的做法与罗斯福的并无二致，都是要竭力维护美国的核垄断地位，并将其视为实现美国目标的重要手段和工具。就当时而言，核武器问题实质上体现的是美国对苏政策和双边关系。格罗夫斯曾言，曼哈顿工程从一开始就是基于苏联是美国的潜在对手而进行的，所采取的安全防范措施主要也是针对苏联。从这一意义上讲，罗斯福在原子能问题上所确定的美英垄断政策实际上已经为冷战的产生铺平了道路。^[106]

当然，冷战的起源是一个极为复杂的问题，既涉及美苏长期的意识形态上的分歧，也与当时双方在东欧、亚洲等地区的激烈争夺密切相关，核武器在其中都不同程度地发挥了作用。在美国领导人看来，一方面，作为一种具有毁灭性杀伤力的武器，原子弹必须置于美国的绝对控制之下，只有美国担负起“监管”的责任，才能避免核战争的爆发，并使原子能的研究造福于人类。另一方面，正是由于美国率先掌握了核秘密，使得其在对苏政策方面愈发强硬，不断要求苏联在东欧、中东及东亚问题上做出让步。如果没有这一武器，美国领导人的基本政策或许不会改变，但在与苏联打交道过程中态度有可能变得不至过于僵硬。自然，美国政府咄咄逼人的政策进一步激起苏联的强烈反应。斯大林多次要求苏联外交部的官员在与美国人打交道时要立场坚定，决不能在美国的核威胁下退缩。同时，美国垄断核武器也使得苏联对整个东欧地区作为缓冲地带和桥头堡的价值有了新的认识。正因为如此，双方的矛盾以及对东欧的争夺变得更为尖锐。

毫无疑问，核武器虽然不是冷战的产物，但在促使战时美苏同盟瓦解、冷战爆发的过程中扮演了非常独特的角色。从核武器角度而言，冷战的发生具有一定的必然性，在很大程度上是因为核武器的巨大毁灭性所决定的。即使美英两国在这一问题上也是纷争迭起，更何况在意识形态、战略目标、社会制度等诸多方面都存在严重对立的美国和苏联，双方的冲突显然在所难免。实际上，战时美英两国将苏联排除在外秘密研制核武器，无疑已经为日后三方关系的发展埋下了巨大的隐患。在美国领导人看来，这一武器不仅是实力的象征，同时也是实现美国外交和政治目标的一张“王牌”，是克敌制胜的法宝。同样，苏联领导人也将其视为对付美国和西方、维护国家安全的必不可少的工具。

由于美国一开始就在原子弹的研制方面实施严格的保密政策，并在多个场合向苏联方面进行核讹诈，试图以此促其妥协让步，这不仅大大恶化了双方关系，同时也加剧了两国在核武器问题上的较量。而“巴鲁克计划”试图通过某种形式的国际控制来达到其垄断核武器、阻止苏联和其他国家研制这一武器的目的，更使得美苏之间的猜疑和隔阂进一步扩大。从根本上说，美苏在核武器问题上的矛盾和冲突是双方长久以来缺乏必要信任的合乎逻辑的结果。核武器的出现不仅强化了双方在诸多问题上的对抗，而且围绕着垄断与反垄断，美苏展开了激烈的角逐，由此拉开了愈演愈烈的核军备竞赛的序幕，而这恰恰构成了冷战最基本的特征之一。

（原刊于《历史研究》2018年第5期）

【注释】

[1]国内的研究参见白建才：《试论核武器在冷战发生、发展和结束中的作用》，《陕西师范大学学报》，2000年第1期；张小明：《冷战及其遗产》，上海：上海人民出版社，1998年，第117-123页。

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[30]Albert Berger，Life and Times of the Atomic Bomb，New York：Routledge，2016，p.76；Leo Szilard，“Atomic Bomb and the Postwar Position of the United States in the World”，Bulletin ofAtomic Scientists，Vol.3，No.12，December 1947，pp.351-353；Alice Kimball Smith，A Peril and a Hope：The Scientists'Movement in America，1945-47，Cambridge：The MIT Press，1971，pp.28-29.

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[32]Richard Rhodes，The Making of the Bomb，New York：Simon and Schuster，1986，p.749；Harrison，“Memorandum for the Secretary of War”，June 26，1945，Harrison-Bundy File.

[33]G.Pascal Zachary，Endless Frontier：Vannevar Bush，Engineer of the American Century，Cambridge：The MIT Press，1999，pp.215-216.

[34]Arneson，“Notes on the Basic Interim Committee Meeting”，June 21，1945，Harrison-Bundy，file 100；Richard Hewlett and Oscar Anderson，The New World，1939-1946，Washington，D.C.：U.S.Atomic Energy Commission，1962，pp.356-357.

[35]Arneson，“Notes of the Interim Committee Meeting”，May 31，1945，Harrison-Bundy Files；Stimson Diary，May 31，July 3，1945；Barton J.Bernstein，“Roosevelt，Truman，and the Atomic Bomb，1941-1945”，Political Science Quarterly，Vol.90，No.1，1975，p.40.

[36]Stimson Diary，June 6，1945，Yale University Library，roll 112.

[37]Leo Szilard，“Reminiscences”，Perspectives in American History，Vol.2，1968，p.128；J.Samuel Walker，Utter Destruction：Truman and the Use of Atomic Bombs against Japan，Chapel Hill：The University of North Carolina Press，2004，p.18.

[38]Arneson，“Notes of the Interim Committee Meeting”，May 31，1945，Harrison-Bundy Files；Micheal B.Stoff，Jonathan F.Fanton and R.Hal Williams，The Manhattan Project：A Documentary Introduction to the Atomic Age，New York：McGraw-Hill，1991，pp.114-115.

[39]Gar Alperovitz，The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb and the Architecture of an American Myth，New York：Alfred A.Knopf，1995，pp.148-149；Kai Bird and Martin Sherwin，American Prometheus：The Triumph and Tragedy of J.Robert Oppenheimer，New York：Alfred A.Knopf，2005，p.304.

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[41]Leon Sigal，Fighting to a Finish：The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan，Ithaca：Cornell University Press，1989，p.97；Wilson Miscamble，From Roosevelt to Truman：Potsdam，Hiroshima，and the Cold War，New York：Cambridge University Press，2007，p.202.

[42]Tsuyoshi Hasegawa，Racing the Enemy：Stalin，Truman，and the Surrender of Japan，Cambridge：Harvard University Press，2005，pp.160-165；Frank Settle，General George C.Marshall and the Atomic Bomb，Santa Barbara：Praeger，2016，p.122.

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[44]Kevin Ruane，Churchill and the Bomb in War and Cold War，London：Bloomsbury Academic，2016，p.129.

[45]Sean L.Malloy，Atomic Tragedy：Henry L.Stimson and the Decision to Use the Bomb against Japan，Ithaca：Cornell University Press，2008，p.133；Henry L.Stimson and McGeorge Bundy，On Active Service in Peace and War，New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1971，pp.638-639.

[46]Stimson Diary，July 21，22 and 23，1945；Micheal B.Stoff，Jonathan F.Fanton and R.Hal Williams eds.，The Manhattan Project：A Documentary Introduction to the Atomic Age，New York：McGraw-Hill，1991，pp.209-210.

[47]Harry Truman，Years of Decision，Garden City：Double Day，1955，p.416；James Byrnes，Speaking Frankly，Westport：Greenwood Press，1974，p.263.

[48]Barton J.Bernstein，“The Quest for Security：American Foreign Policy and International Control of Atomic Energy，1942-1946”，The Journal ofAmerican History，Vol.60，No.4，1974，p.1025.

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[50]Joseph Lieberman，The Scorpion and the Tarantula：The Struggle to Control Atomic Weapons，1945-1949，Boston：Houghton Mifflin，1970，p.198；Lawrence Freedman，The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy，London：Macmillan Press，1987，p.60.(https://www.daowen.com)

[51]Robert Messer，The End of an Alliance：James F.Byrnes，Roosevelt，Truman，and the Origins of the Cold War，Chapel Hill：The University of North Carolina Press，1982，pp.127-128；Campell Craig and Sergey Radchenko，The Atomic Bomb and the Origins of the Cold War，New Haven：Yale University Press，2008，pp.97-98.

[52]刘玉宝、张广翔：《国外核情报与苏联原子弹的研制》，《历史研究》，2015年第1期，第139页。

[53]Stephen Zaloga，Target America：The Soviet Union and the Strategic Arms Race，1945-1964，Novato；Presidio，1993，p.27；John Lewis Gaddis，We Now Know：Rethinking Cold War History，New York：Oxford University Press，1997，pp.95-96.

[54]David Holloway，The Soviet Union and the Arms Race，New Haven：Yale University Press，1983，p.20；Ann Lane and Howard Temperley，The Rise and Fall of the Grand Alliance，1941-45，New York：St.Martin's Press，1995，pp.216-217.

[55]Mark Kramer，“Documenting the Early Soviet Nuclear Weapons Program”，Cold War International History Project Bulletin，Winter 1995/1996，pp.269-270；David Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb：The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy，1939-1956，New Haven：Yale University Press，1994，p.129；Campell Craig and Sergey Radchenko，The Atomic Bomb and the Origins of the Cold War，New Haven：Yale University Press，1983，p.96.

[56]Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb：The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy，1939-1956，New Haven：Yale University Press，1994，pp.148，149；“Stalin's Secret Order”，Cold War International History Project，Fall 1994，p.5.

[57]“Memo for the Record”，August 18，1945，folder 98，Harrison-Bundy Files；U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，pp.56，60-62.

[58]George Kennan，Memoirs，1925-1950，Boston：Little，Brown，1967，pp.296-297.

[59]Henry L.Stimson and McGeorge Bundy，On Active Service in Peace and War，New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1971，pp.640-641.

[60]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，pp.40-41；Stimson Diary，September 4，5，17，1945，roll 113，Yale University Library.

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[67]Haynes Johnson and Bernard Gwertzman，Fulbright：The Dissenter，Garden City：Doubleday，1968，pp.99-100.

[68]Shane Maddock，Nuclear Apartheid：The Quest for American Atomic Supremacy from World War Ⅱ to the Present，Chapel Hill：The University of North Carolina Press，2010，p.36；C.P.Trussell，“Congress is Keyed to Receive Message of Truman Today”，New York Times，September 6，1945；Felix Belair，“Plea to Give Soviet Atom Secret Stirs Debate in Cabinet”，New York Times，September 22，1945；“House Group Asks Secrecy on Bomb”，New York Times，October 2，1945.

[69]U.S.Department of State，The International Control of Atomic Energy：Growth of a Policy，Washington，D.C.：U.S.Government Printing Office，1948，p.13；Hazel G.Erskine，“The Polls：Atomic Weapons and Nuclear Energy”，The Public Opinion Quarterly，Vol.27，No.2，1963，p.164.

[70]“64 Educators Ask Atom Data Sharing”，New York Times，September 10，1945；Alice K.Smith，A Peril and a Hope：The Scientist's Movement in America，1945-47，Cambridge：The MIT Press，1971，pp.93-95.

[71]Paul Boyer，By the Bomb's Early Light：American Thought and Culture at the Dawn of the Atomic Age，Chapel Hill：The University of North Carolina Press，1994，p.52.

[72]Alice K.Smith and Charles Weiner，eds.，Robert Oppenheimer：Letters and Recollections，Stanford：Stanford University Press，1980，pp.293-294；Richard Rhodes，The Making of the Atomic Bomb，New York：Simon and Schuster，1986，pp.751-752.

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[74]John Lewis Gaddis，The United States and the Origins of the Cold War，1941-1947，New York：Columbia University Press，1972，p.270.

[75]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，pp.63，69-73；David Tal，The American Nuclear Disarmament Dilemma，1945-1963，Syracuse：Syracuse University Press，2008，pp.13-14.

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[78]Lieberman，The Scorpion and the Tarantula：The Struggle to Control Atomic Weapons，1945-1949，Boston：Houghton Mifflin，1970，pp.201-203.

[79]Scott Parrish，“A Diplomat Reports”，Cold War International History Project Bulletin，Spring 1992，p.21；Campell Craig and Sergey Radchenko，The Atomic Bomb and the Origins of the Cold War，New Haven：Yale University Press，2008，pp.100-101.

[80]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，p.83；Ibid，Vol.5，p.923；Barton J.Bernstein，The Atomic Bomb：The Critical Issues，Boston：Little Brown，1976，pp.133-134.

[81]Richard Hewlett and Oscar Anderson，The New World，1939-1946，Washington，D.C.：U.S.Atomic Energy Commission，1962，p.470.

[82]Holloway，Stalin and the Bomb：The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy，1939-1956，New Haven：Yale University Press，1994，p.159.

[83]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，pp.93，96-97.

[84]Tom Connally，My Name is Tom Connally，New York：Crowell，1954，p.287；Arthur Vandenberg，The Private Papers of Senator Vandenberg，Boston：Houghton Mifflin，1952，pp.227-228.

[85]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1945，Vol.2，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1967，pp.609-610；Gregg Herken，The Winning Weapon：The Atomic Bomb in the Cold War，1945-1950，New York：Alfred A.Knopf，1980，p.80.

[86]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1946，Vol.1，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1972，pp.761-764；Kai Bird and Martin Sherwin，American Prometheus：The Triumph and Tragedy ofJ.Robert Oppenheimer，New York：Alfred A.Knopf，2005，pp.340-341.

[87]David Lilienthal，The Journals of David E.Lilienthal，Vol.2，New York：Harper and Row，1964，p.30；Harry Truman，Years of Trial and Hope，Garden City：Doubleday，1956，pp.8-9.

[88]Dean Acheson，Present at the Creation：My Years in the State Department，New York：Norton，1969，p.155；U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1946，Vol.1，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1972，pp.846-851.

[89]U.S.Department of State，Documents on Disarmament，1945-1959，Vol.l，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1960，pp.7-16；“Baruch's Speech at Opening Session of U.N.Atomic Energy Commission”，New York Times，June 15，1946.

[90]Drew Middleton，“Baruch Atom Plan Spurned by Pravda”，New York Times，June 25，1946；U.S.Department of State，Documents on Disarmament，1945-1959，Vol.1，pp.17-24.

[91]Harry Truman，Years of Trial and Hope，Garden City：Double Day，1956，p.11；Arnold A.Offner，Another Such Victory：President Truman and the Cold War，Stanford：Stanford University Press，2002，p.149.

[92]David Lilienthal，The Journals of David E.Lilienthal，Vol.2，New York：Harper and Row，1964，p.123；Gerber，“The Baruch Plan and the Origins of the Cold War”，Diplomatic History，Vol.6，No.1，Winter 1982，p.76.

[93]Hazel G.Erskine，“The Polls：Atomic Weapons and Nuclear Energy”，The Public Opinion Quarterly，Vol.27，No.2，1963，p.168.

[94]Shane Maddock，Nuclear Apartheid：The Quest for American Atomic Supermacy from World War Ⅱ to the Present，Chapel Hill：The University of North Carolina Press，2010，pp.61-62；U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1946，Vol.1，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1972，p.739.

[95]U.S.Department of State，International Control of Atomic Energy，p.117；McGeorge Bundy，Danger and Survival：Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years，New York：Random House，1988，pp.133-134.

[96]Offner，Another Such Victory：President Truman and the Cold War，Stanford：Stanford University Press，2002，p.109；Michael D.Gordin，Red Cloud at Dawn：Truman，Stalin，and the End of the Atomic Monopoly，New York：Picador，2009，p.40.

[97]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1946，Vol.6，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1969，pp.696-709；Thomas Etzold and John Lewis Gaddis eds.，Containment：Documents on American Policy and Strategy，1945-1950，New York：Columbia University Press，1978，pp.50-71；Melvyn Leffler，A Preponderance of Power：National Security，the Truman Administration，and the Cold War，Stanford：Stanford University Press，1992，pp.131-138.

[98]John Lewis Gaddis，The United States and the Origins of the Cold War，1941-1947，New York：Columbia University Press，1972，p.335；Walter Millis ed.，The Forrestal Diaries，New York：Viking Press，1951，p.200.

[99]Lauris D.Norstad，“Memorandum for Major General Leslie Groves”，September 15，1945，Correspondence of the Manhattan Engineer District，1942-1946，file 3，National Archives，College Park，Maryland.

[100]Joint Chiefs of Staff，“Over-all Effect of Atomic Bomb on Warfare and Military Organization”，October 30，1945，DNSA，Nuclear Non-proliferation，NP00007.

[101]U.S.Department of State，Foreign Relations of the United States，1946，Vol.1，Washington，D.C.：United States Government Printing Office，1972，p.744.

[102]Melvyn P.Leffler，A Preponderance ofPower：National Security，the Truman Administration，and the Cold War，Stanford：Stanford University Press，1992，p.116；Richard Hewlett and Oscar Anderson，The New World，1939-1946，Washington，D.C.：U.S.Atomic Energy Commission，1962，p.575；Barton J.Bernstein，“The Quest for Security：American Foreign Policy and International Control of Atomic Energy，1942-1946”，The Journal ofAmerican History，Vol.60，No.4，1974，p.1036.

[103]Steven Ross，American War Plans，1945-1950，London：Frank Cass，1996，pp.25-50；Michael S.Sherry，Preparingfor the Next War：American Plans for Postwar Defense，1941-1945，New Haven：Yale University Press，1977，pp.213-216.

[104]Drew Middleton，“Russian Questions U.S.Faith on Atom”，New York Times，July 4，1946；“Soviet Has Atomic Bomb Ready to Test，Russian Scientist Implies”，New York Times，August 13，1946.

[105]Gar Alperovitz，Atomic Diplomacy：Hiroshima and Potsdam，New York：Vintage，1965，p.13.

[106]Leslie Groves，Now It Can be Told：The Story of the Manhattan Project，New York：Harper，1962，p.141；Gregg Herken，The Winning Weapon：The Atomic Bomb in the Cold War，1945-1950，New York：Alfred A.Knopf，1980，p.106.