4.1　The analysis

For problem 2,we build the chain of antibiotic interests in the context of a perfectly competitive market to predict crisis trends.As the market is perfectly competitive,the entire chain of antibiotic interest chains is driven by consumer demand.

In order to prevent errors and data distortion,this paper takes 5 years as a cycle.We use the Markov chain model to predict the trend of the number of patients with time to study and change in response to consumer demand.Farmers demand for antibiotics with a wide range of coverage and fuzzy characteristics.So we use the extreme method.The total demand of patients and farmers is the demand chain.

After solving problem one,we can see that consumer demand has certain connection with other dynamic factors.Therefore,by establishing the correlation matrix between consumer demand and dynamic factors in 5 years,the correlation coefficient is used to establish the relationship between consumers.The change of demand leads to the change of other dynamic factors.

Finally,it brings the producer interest function and the middleman interest function established in question one and sums up the change trend of interest.In view of the crisis situation,this paper shows the development of the crisis in the perfect competitive market by modifying the profit function because the sales quantity function is difficult to be determined due to the sales quantity of antibiotics,and because there is lagging interest between interest and sale trend.