第9篇 Predictions of Ozone Depletion
参赛队员：胡雄,郑鹤鹏,王馨贤
指导老师：周华任
获奖情况：2016年第五届“认证杯”数学建模国际赛二等奖(Honorable Mention)
Summary：Ozone in the atmosphere profoundly affects climate change and human survival and development.ln this paper,a dynamic time series analysis model based on Dynamic Harmonic Regression(DHR)is established to forecast the total ozone over the next 50 years.
First,the ozone data monitored at various sites of the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Center since 1979 were collected and averaged to obtain the time series of global ozone data over the past decades.Then,the ozone data in recent years are analyzed on quantity and characteristics of change,and come to two conclusions：Human activities have a crucial impact on the overall trend of ozone totals;The periodic activity of the sun makes the ozone total amount of change has a certain periodicity.
Then,based on the above characteristics of time series of global ozone,the Dynamic Harmonic Regression(DHR)time series analysis model was established.ln this paper,the original time series data are decomposed into three components：trend,period and error.Then the main components：trend and error are predicted.And then reconstructed the three components obtained from the prediction to obtain the new time series,and then forecast the change of the total ozone quantity in the future 50 years.
Moreover,this paper considers that the distribution of global atmospheric ozone has complex temporal and spatial characteristics.The regional characteristics of the change of total ozone were analyzed taking a way to divide the latitude band when testing the model,and the results showed that the stability of the model was good.Then,the seasonal characteristics of atmospheric ozone distribution are analyzed,which will provide a reference for further accurate prediction.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of the model are summed up and evaluated comprehensively.
Forecast：The global ozone content in the atmosphere will be restored to its predestruction level after 20 years,and after that to maintain a certain periodicity of smallscale fluctuations.Until 50 years later,the average global ozone content can reach about 330 DU.
Key words：Ozone Depletion;Dynamic Harmonic Regression;Ozone Prediction