注释

注释

序言

1　For Naval War College Strategy and Policy curricula，see www.usnwc.edu/Faculty-and-Departments/Academic-Departments/Strategy-and-Policy-Department.For the Yale course，www.grandstrategy.yale.edu/background；also Linda Kulman，Teaching Common Sense：The Grand Strategy Program at Yale University（Westport，Connecticut：Prospecta Press，2016）.

2　Some readers may worry that I've forgotten the Cold War.Not at all—it's just that I've said enough already on that subject.See，most recently，the revised edition of my Strategies of Containment（New York：Oxford University Press，2005），and my article on“Grand Strategies in the Cold War，”in Melvyn P.Leffler and Odd Arne Westad，The Cambridge History of the Cold War（New York：Cambridge University Press，2010），vol.2，pp.1-21.

3　Special thanks to Anthony Kronman，the former dean of the Yale Law School，for suggesting the relevance of these to grand strategy.

第一章

1　Herodotus，The History，Book Ⅶ：1-56.I've used David Grene's translation（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1987），pp.466-90.For a recent appreciation of Herodotus，see Robert D.Kaplan，“A Historian for Our Time，”The Atlantic，January/February 2007.

2　Michael Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin：A Life（New York：Metropolitan Books，1998），p.173.See also Ramin Jahanbegloo，Conversations with Isaiah Berlin，second edition（London：Halban，1992），pp.188-89，and Isaiah Berlin，Enlightening：Letters，1946-1960，edited by Henry Hardy and Jennifer Holmes（London：Chatto and Windus，2009），p.31n.The inspiration could also have come from C.M.Bowra，“The Fox and the Hedgehog，”The Classical Quarterly 34（January-April 1940），26-29.

3　Stephen Jay Gould's last book，The Hedgehog，the Fox，and the Magister's Pox：Mending the Gap Between Science and the Humanities（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2011），pp.1-8，has a brief history of the aphorism.

4　Isaiah Berlin，The Hedgehog and the Fox，edited by Henry Hardy（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2013），p.91.I've also drawn on an essay by a former student，Joseph Carlsmith，“The Bed，the Map，and the Butterfly：Isaiah Berlin's Grand Strategy of Grand Strategy，”prepared for the 2011 Yale“Studies in Grand Strategy”seminar.

5　Isaiah Berlin，“The Hedgehog and the Fox：An Essay on Tolstoy's View of History，”in his The Proper Study of Mankind：An Anthology of Essays，edited by Henry Hardy and Roger Hausheer（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1998），pp.436-37，498.

6　A.N.Wilson，Tolstoy：A Biography（New York：Norton，1988），pp.506-17.

7　Berlin，The Hedgehog and the Fox，pp.ⅹⅴ-ⅹⅵ.

8　Herodotus，I：12，p.38.

9　Ibid.，Ⅶ：8，10，pp.469，472.See also Tom Holland，Persian Fire：The First World Empire and the Battle for the West（New York：Doubleday，2005），p.238.

10　Herodotus，Ⅶ：8，22-24，pp.469，478-79；Holland，Persian Fire，pp.212-14.

11　For more on the Achilles-Odysseus distinction in strategy，see Lawrence Freedman，Strategy：A History（New York：Oxford University Press，2013），p.22.

12　Not literally，of course.If born by then，Herodotus would have been a mere tyke.

13　Philip E.Tetlock，Expert Political Judgment：How Good Is It？How Can We Know？（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2005），especially pp.ⅹⅰ，73-75，118，128-29.For a popularization of Tetlock's findings，see Dan Gardner，Future Babble：Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless，and You Can Do Better（New York：Dutton，2011）.Tetlock and Gardner have collaborated，in turn，on an update，Superforecasting：The Art and Science of Prediction（New York：Crown，2015）.

14　Herodotus，Ⅶ：101，108-26，pp.502，505-10.

15　John R.Hale，Lords of the Sea：The Epic Story of the Athenian Navy and the Birth of Democracy（New York：Penguin，2009），pp.36-39，55-74；also Barry Strauss，The Battle of Salamis：The Naval Encounter That Saved Greece—and Western Civilization（New York：Simon and Schuster，2005）.

16　Aeschylus，The Persians，lines 819-20，Seth G.Benardete translation（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1956），p.77.For Themistocles'rumor，see Plutarch，Lives of the Noble Grecians and Romans，translated by John Dryden（New York：Modern Library，no date），p.144.

17　Victor Parker，“Herodotus'Use of Aeschylus'Persae as a Source for the Battle of Salamis，”Symbolae Osloenses：Norwegian Journal of Greek and Latin Studies 82：1，2-29.

18　Herodotus，Ⅶ：8，p.469.

19　A point linked to more recent examples in Victor Davis Hanson，The Savior Generals：How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost—from Ancient Greece to Iraq（New York：Bloomsbury Press，2013），p.11.

20　Herodotus，Ⅶ：38-39，pp.483-84.

21　F.Scott Fitzgerald，“The Crack-Up，”Esquire，February 1936.

22　Jeffrey Meyers，Scott Fitzgerald：A Biography（New York：HarperCollins，1994），pp.261-65，332-36.

23　My Yale colleague Charles Hill，often Delphic himself，is fond of quoting the aphorism in seminars without explaining it to puzzled students.

24　This is a simplified summary of three great Berlin essays，“Two Concepts of Liberty”（1958），“The Originality of Machiavelli”（1972），and“The Pursuit of the Ideal”（1988）.All are in The Proper Study of Mankind，where I've relied particularly on pp.10-11，239，294，and 302.The Halloween kid，however，is my own formulation.

25　Jahanbegloo，Conversations with Isaiah Berlin，pp.188-89.See also Berlin，The Hedgehog and the Fox，p.101，quoting an interview with Michael Ignatieff.

26　Or，as Berlin once put it，on Procrustean beds.Carlsmith develops this point in“The Bed，the Map，and the Butterfly.”

27　See Anthony Lane's review，“House Divided，”in The New Yorker，November 19，2012.

28　IMDb，Lincoln（2012），at www.imdb.com/title/tt0443272/quotes.

29　Tolstoy's tribute concludes the final volume of Michael Burlingame's Abraham Lincoln：A Life（Baltimore：Johns Hopkins University Press，2008），p.834.

30　I've borrowed elements of this and the previous paragraph from my article“War，Peace，and Everything：Thoughts on Tolstoy，”Cliodynamics：The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2（2011），40-51.

31　Berlin，“The Hedgehog and the Fox，”in The Proper Study of Mankind，p.444.

32　Tetlock，Expert Political Judgment，pp.214-15；Daniel Kahneman，Thinking，Fast and Slow（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，2011），especially pp.20-21.For Kahneman on Tetlock，see pp.218-20.

33　Most famously in the 2002 film Spider-Man，but the quote has appeared in various forms in the franchise's other movies and comics.Strangely，a close approximation would have shown up in Franklin D.Roosevelt's Jefferson Day dinner address on April 13，1945，had he lived to deliver it（www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/？pid=16602）.

34　Homer，The Iliad，translated by Robert Fagles（New York：Penguin，1990），p.371.Homer，of course，recorded by remembering，since the Greeks of his age had forgotten how to write.

35　I owe this suggestion to my former student Christopher R.Howell，who advances it in“The Story of Grand Strategy：The History of an Idea and the Source of Its Confusion，”a 2013 Yale Senior Essay in Humanities，p.2.See also Freedman，Strategy，pp.3-7.

36　For what he read，see Richard Carwardine，Lincoln：A Life of Purpose and Power（New York：Random House，2006），pp.4-10；also Fred Kaplan，Lincoln：The Biography of a Writer（New York：HarperCollins，2008）.The only other comparably self-educated presidents appear to have been Zachary Taylor and Andrew Johnson.

37　Henry Kissinger，White House Years（Boston：Little，Brown，1979），p.54.

38　See Michael Billig，Learn to Write Badly：How to Succeed in the Social Sciences（New York：Cambridge University Press，2013）.I gave further attention to the relationship between history and theory in The Landscape of History：How Historians Map the Past（New York：Oxford University Press，2002）.James C.Scott discusses the distinction between universal and local knowledge in his Seeing Like a State：How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed（New Haven：Yale University Press，1998）.

39　Niccolò Machiavelli，The Prince，translated by Harvey C.Mansfield，second edition（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1998），pp.3-4.

40　The standard edition is Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976）.

41　Donald Rumsfeld，Known and Unknown：A Memoir（New York：Penguin，2011），especially pp.ⅹⅲ-ⅹⅳ.

42　For the history of this famous misquotation，see Elizabeth Longford，Wellington（London：Abacus，2001），pp.16-17.

第二章

1　Victor Davis Hanson，A War Like No Other：How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War（New York：Random House，2005），p.66.

2　My description of the Athenian walls comes chiefly from Thucydides，for whom I have used Robert B.Strassler，ed.，The Landmark Thucydides：A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War，a revised version of the Richard Crawley translation（New York：Simon and Schuster，1996），1：89-93［hereafter Thucydides，followed by the book and paragraph numbers standard in all editions］.See also Brent L.Sterling，Do Good Fences Make Good Neighbors？What History Teaches Us About Strategic Barriers and International Security（Washington，D.C.：Georgetown University Press，2009），pp.15-16；and David L.Berkey，“Why Fortifications Endure：A Case Study of the Walls of Athens During the Classical Period，”in Victor Davis Hanson，ed.，Makers of Ancient Strategy：From the Persian Wars to the Fall of Rome（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2010），pp.60-63.Plutarch's comments are in his Lives of the Noble Grecians and Romans，translated by John Dryden（New York：Modern Library，no date），pp.191-93.

3　Victor Davis Hanson，The Savior Generals：How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost—from Ancient Greece to Iraq（New York：Bloomsbury Press，2013），pp.33-34.

4　Donald Kagan，Pericles of Athens and the Birth of Democracy（New York：Free Press，1991），pp.4-5.

5　Thucydides，1：18，p.14.See also ibid.，1：10，p.8；and Herodotus，6：107-8，pp.450-51.

6　Hanson，The Savior Generals，pp.18-22，29.

7　An image more often used to describe the positions of France and Great Britain after the battles—both in 1805—of Austerlitz and Trafalgar.For Pericles'characterization of the two strategies，see Thucydides，1：143，p.83.

8　Hanson，The Savior Generals，pp.10-12，provides striking quantitative measures of the destruction.

9　Thucydides，1：21-22.Emphasis added.

10　Kagan，Pericles，p.10.Professor Kagan refers to“Athenians，”but I think he won't mind my expanding his scope.

11　Thucydides，1：89-92，pp.49-51.See also Plutarch，p.145.

12　Hanson，The Savior Generals，pp.34-36.

13　The classic life of Pericles is Plutarch's，pp.182-212，while the best modem biography is Kagan's.

14　Hanson，The Savior Generals，p.18.

15　Hanson，A War Like No Other，pp.38-45.For Pericles'offer，see Thucydides，2：13，p.98.

16　Hanson，A War Like No Other，pp.236-39，246-47；Kagan，Pericles，p.66.See also，for the wider context，John R.Hale，Lords of the Sea：The Epic Story of the Athenian Navy and the Birth of Democracy（New York：Penguin，2009）.

17　Plutarch，p.186.

18　All Pericles quotations in this section are from Thucydides，2：34-46，pp.110-18.For the theme of distinctiveness and universality，see Donald Kagan，“Pericles，Thucydides，and the Defense of Empire，”in Hanson，Makers of Ancient Strategy，p.31.

19　Kagan，Pericles，pp.49-54，describes how the assembly functioned.See also Cynthia Farrar，“Power to the People，”in Kurt A.Raaflaub，Josiah Ober，and Robert W.Wallace，with Paul Cartledge and Cynthia Farrar，Origins of Democracy in Ancient Greece（Berkeley：University of California Press，2007），pp.184-89.

20　Hanson，A War Like No Other，p.27.

21　For the importance of reassurance as an accompaniment to deterrence，see Michael Howard，The Causes of Wars，second edition（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，1984），pp.246-64.

22　Kagan，Pericles，pp.102-5.

23　Ibid.，p.86.

24　Thucydides，1：24-66，86-88，pp.16-37，48-49.See also J.E.Lendon，Song of Wrath：The Peloponnesian War Begins（New York：Basic Books，2010）.

25　The quote is，supposedly，Bismarck's.

26　I base this generalization on Kagan，Pericles，p.192，and Hanson，A War Like No Other，pp.10-12.

27　Thucydides，1：67-71，pp.38-41.

28　Ibid.，1：72-79，pp.41-45.

29　Ibid.，1：79-85，pp.45-47.

30　Ibid.，1：86-87，p.48.

31　Kagan，Pericles，pp.206，214.

32　I've discussed this at greater length in The Landscape of History：How Historians Map the Past（New York：Oxford University Press，2002），pp.116-18.

33　Thucydides，1：144，pp.83-84；Plutarch，p.199.See also Kagan，Pericles，pp.84，92，115-16.

34　Thucydides，1：77，p.44.

35　Ibid.，1：140-44，pp.80-85.I've followed Kagan's analysis of the Megarian decree in his Pericles，pp.206-27.

36　Thucydides，2：12，p.97.

37　Plutarch，pp.194-95；Thucydides，1：127，p.70.

38　Kagan，Pericles，p.207.

39　See Shakespeare's Troilus and Cressida，act 1，scene 3，lines 112-27.

40　Thucydides，2：59，p.123.

41　Ibid.，2：60-64，pp.123-27.

42　Ibid.，3：82，p.199.

43　Ibid.，3：2-6，16-18，25-26，35-50，pp.159-61，166-67，171，175-84.The Mytilenians didn't escape punishment.The Athenians executed the ringleaders of the revolt，pulled down the walls of the city，seized its ships，and expropriated property.This was far less，though，than what Cleon demanded.

44　Ibid.，5：84-116，pp.350-57.

45　Ibid.，3：82，p.199.

46　For more on this，see John Lewis Gaddis，“Drawing Lines：The Defensive Perimeter Strategy in East Asia，1947-1951，”in Gaddis，The Long Peace：Inquiries into the History of the Cold War（New York：Oxford University Press，1987），pp.71-103.Taiwan was not included，because the Chinese Nationalists had fled there.Defending them，the administration feared，would be seen as intervention in the Chinese civil war，which it had hoped to avoid.

47　The casualty figures are from Britannica Online，“Korean War，”www.britannica.com.

48　Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976），p.471.Emphasis in the original.

49　Plutarch，pp.204-7；Kagan，Pericles，pp.221-27.

50　Thucydides，6：6，p.365.

51　Ibid.，6：9-26，pp.366-76.There was also a third commander，Lamachus，of whom Thucydides tells us little.

52　Ibid.，7：44，70-87，pp.453，468-78.

53　Hanson，A War Like No Other，pp.205，217.

54　Henry Kissinger，White House Years（Boston：Little，Brown，1979），p.1049.

55　See www.archives.gov/research/military/vietnam-war/casualty-statistics.html.

56　For specifics，see Ilya V.Gaiduk，The Soviet Union and the Vietnam War（Chicago：Ivan R.Dee，1996）；Qiang Zhai，China and the Vietnam Wars，1950-1975（Chapel Hill：University of North Carolina Press，2000）；and Lien-Hang Nguyen，Hanoi's Wars：An International History of the War for Peace in Vietnam（Chapel Hill：University of North Carolina Press，2012）.

57　John Lewis Gaddis，The Cold War：A New History（New York：Penguin，2005），pp.149-55.

58　Thucydides，1：140，p.81；Kennedy remarks to Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce，November 22，1963，Public Papers of the Presidents：John F.Kennedy，1963（Washington，D.C.：Government Printing Office，1964），p.889.

59　To whom I'm grateful for having inspired my Strategies of Containment：A Critical Appraisal of American National Security Policy During the Cold War，revised and expanded edition（New York：Oxford University Press，2005），as well as Yale's long-standing“Studies in Grand Strategy”seminar.

第三章

1　Sun Tzu，The Art of War，translated by Samuel B.Griffith（New York：Oxford University Press，1963），pp.66，89，95，109.I'm indebted to Schuyler Schouten for the marketing analogy.

2　Hamlet，act 3，scene 2.Polonius on borrowers and lenders is in act 1，scene 3.

3　The Art of War，pp.63-64，66，89，95，129.Emphasis added.

4　Ibid.，pp.91-92.

5　I've relied chiefly，for this and the following account of Octavian's upbringing and education，on Anthony Everitt，Augustus：The Life of Rome's First Emperor（New York：Random House，2006），pp.3-50；and Adrian Goldsworthy，Augustus：First Emperor of Rome（New Haven：Yale University Press，2014），pp.19-80.Goldsworthy uses Augustus'names as titles for the five sections of his book.The portents are in Suetonius，The Twelve Caesars，translated by Robert Graves（New York：Penguin，2007，first published in 1957），Ⅱ：94，pp.94-95.

6　Mary Beard explores the paradox of a republican empire in the first half of her S.P.Q.R.：A History ofAncient Rome（New York：Norton，2015）.

7　The most recent account is Barry Strauss，The Death of Caesar：The Story of History's Most Famous Assassination（New York：Simon and Schuster，2015）.Plutarch's observation is in his Lives of the Noble Grecians and Romans，translated by John Dryden（New York：Modem Library，no date），p.857.

8　John Williams，Augustus（New York：New York Review of Books，2014；first published in 1971），pp.21-22.For Caesar's probable intentions for Octavian，see Adrian Goldsworthy，Caesar：Life of a Colossus（New Haven：Yale University Press，2006），pp.497-98，and Strauss，The Death of Caesar，pp.45-46.

9　At which point，he ceased to use the name Octavian and began to call himself Caesar.To avoid confusion，I've followed the practice of Everitt and most other historians—although not Goldsworthy—and continued to refer to him as Octavian until he himself took the name Augustus.

10　Commentary by Tu Mu，in The Art of War，p.65.

11　The best evidence is Octavian's surprise，apparently genuine，on learning the contents of Caesar's will.Even if Caesar had revealed his intentions，neither he nor Octavian could have anticipated how little time Caesar had left.

12　See Isaiah Berlin's letter to George F.Kennan，February 13，1951，in Berlin，Liberty，edited by Henry Hardy（New York：Oxford University Press，2007），pp.341-42.

13　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.87-101.For Cicero's shifts，see Anthony Everitt，Cicero：The Life and Times of Rome's Greatest Politician（New York：Random House，2003），pp.273-96.

14　John Buchan，Augustus（Cornwall：Stratus Books，2003；first published in 1937），p.32.

15　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.105-7.

16　Well described in Plutarch，pp.1106-7.

17　Everitt，Augustus，p.76.See also，on Octavian's purposefulness，Ronald Syme，The Roman Revolution（New York：Oxford University Press，1939），p.3.

18　Everitt，Augustus，pp.32，45，88-91，110，139，213.

19　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.115-25.Antony would later claim that Octavian ran away from the first Mutina battle.［Suetonius，Ⅱ：10，p.47.］

20　Syme，The Roman Revolution，p.124.

21　Later immortalized as a cipher by Shakespeare in Julius Caesar.

22　The episode anticipates the Treaty of Tilsit，signed by the emperor Napoleon of France and Tsar Alexander I of Russia in the middle of the river Niemen in July 1807，discussed in chapter seven.But they were on a raft，not an island.

23　Everitt，Cicero，pp.313-19.For background on the proscriptions，see Syme，The Roman Revolution，pp.187-201.

24　Goldsworthy，Augustus，p.122.

25　There was a connection.The fortress of Philippi was named for Philip of Macedon，the father of Alexander the Great，who built it in 356 B.C.E.The first Philippics，a set of four speeches delivered shortly thereafter by the Greek orator Demosthenes，were directed against Philip.Cicero modeled his fourteen Philippics on these.

26　Goldsworthy，Augustus，p.142；Everitt，Augustus，pp.88-94.

27　Appian，The Civil Wars，translated by John Carter（New York：Penguin，1996），V，p.287.See also Everitt，Augustus，pp.98-99.

28　Ibid.，pp.100-103；also Syme，The Roman Revolution，p.215.

29　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.144-47.

30　Suetonius，Ⅱ：15，p.49；also Everitt，Augustus，pp.104-5.

31　Ibid.，pp.108-13.Antony also reported to Octavian the disloyalty of the latter's old friend Salvidienus Rufus，who with unclear motives had approached Antony's agents in Gaul.Octavian promptly had him executed.［Appian，The Civil Wars，V：65，pp.312-13.］

32　A point made by Symes，The Roman Revolution，p.114.

33　See，on this point，chapter two.

34　Plutarch，p.1106.

35　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.156-59.

36　The fullest account is in Appian，The Civil Wars，V：85-92，pp.322-26.

37　Everitt，Augustus，pp.129-30.

38　Appian，The Civil Wars，V：98-126，pp.328-42.

39　The Romans'grievance went back to the Parthians'defeat of Marcus Licinius Crassus and his army at the battle of Carrhae in 53，which resulted in the loss of several Roman legions'standards.Julius Caesar had been planning to avenge the humiliation when he was assassinated in 44—this was the mission the young Octavian was training for—and Antony had inherited it after his victory at Philippi two years later.

40　He was also，in the Egyptian manner，his mother's co-monarch Ptolemy ⅩⅤ.Goldsworthy，Caesar，pp.496-97，provides a plausible assessment of the paternity issue.

41　Everitt，Augustus，pp.145-53.

42　Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.186-88.

43　Plutarch，p.1142.

44　For an informed suggestion of where the story originated，see Adrian Tronson，“Vergil，the Augustans，and the Invention of Cleopatra's Suicide—One Asp or Two？”Vergilius 44（1998），31-50.I am indebted to Toni Dorfman for this reference.

45　A point made in Stacy Schiff，Cleopatra：A Life（New York：Little，Brown，2010），pp.101，108，133.

46　Cassius Dio，The Roman History：The Reign ofAugustus，translated by Ian Scott-Kilvert（New York：Penguin，1987），LI：16，p.77.

47　For a different view，see Goldsworthy，Augustus，p.207.

48　Robin Lane Fox，Alexander the Great（New York：Penguin，2004；first published in 1973），pp.369-70，461-72.

49　The Art of War，p.106.The distinction is most often associated，in the modern era，with the British strategist B.H.Liddell-Hart，but he has acknowledged Sun Tzu's anticipation of it.［Foreword，ibid.，p.ⅶ.］

50　The Art of War，pp.66-68，70.

51　For a fictionalization of this principle as applied to writing poems，see Williams，Augustus，pp.38-39.

52　The Georgics of Virgil，translated by David Ferry（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，2005），p.89.

53　Ibid.，p.ⅹⅸ.Wikipedia claims to have counted the hexameters.

54　Buchan，Augustus，p.114.There are more general discussions of Virgil in Everitt，Augustus，pp.114-16，and Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.307-17.

55　Everitt，Augustus，pp.199-211；Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.217-38.

56　Beard，S.P.Q.R.，pp.354-56，368-69，374；also Goldsworthy，Augustus，pp.476-81.

57　The Aeneid，translated by Robert Fagles（New York：Viking，2006），Ⅷ：21-22，p.242.

58　Ibid.，Ⅵ：915，p.208.

59　Hermann Broch，The Death of Virgil，translated by Jean Starr Untermeyer（New York：Vintage Books，1995；first published in 1945），pp.319，321.My Yale colleague Charles Hill first alerted me to the significance both of the Georgics and of Broch.His commentary on the latter is in Charles Hill，Grand Strategies：Literature，Statecraft，and World Order（New Haven：Yale University Press，2010），pp.282-85.

60　Beard，S.P.Q.R.，pp.415-16.For two recent accounts of how rules of inheritance could ruin lives and endanger states，see Geoffrey Parker，Imprudent King：A New Life of Philip Ⅱ（New Haven：Yale University Press，2014）；and Janice Hadlow，A Royal Experiment：The Private Life of King George Ⅲ（New York：Henry Holt，2014）.

61　John Williams portrays Julia with particular richness in his novel Augustus.

62　Not the one to Mark Antony.

63　Fagles translation，Book Ⅵ：993-1021，p.211.Octavia is said to have fainted when she heard Virgil read these lines.

64　For a graphic illustration of the genealogical complexities Augustus created，see Beard，S.P.Q.R.，pp.382-83.

65　Everitt，Augustus，p.302.

66　Goldsworthy，Augustus，p.453.

67　Cassius Dio，Augustus，LVI：30，p.245；Suetonius，11：99，p.100.

68　Williams，Augustus，p.228.

69　The term is Greg Woolf's，whose Rome：An Empire's Story（New York：Oxford University Press，2012），provides in its introductory chapters a succinct overview of the Roman legacy.

70　A twist neatly captured in the final line of Williams's Augustus，p.305.

71　See，on this point，Woolf，Rome，pp.216-17；Beard，S.P.Q.R，pp.412-13.

第四章

1　George Kennan，Tent-Life in Siberia and Adventures Among the Koraks and Other Tribes in Kamtchatka and Northern Asia（New York：G.P.Putnam and Sons，1870），pp.208-12.For more on Kennan，see Frederick F.Travis，George Kennan and the American-Russian Relationship，1865-1924（Athens：Ohio University Press，1990）.

2　See Greg Woolf，Rome：An Empire's Story（New York：Oxford University Press，2012），pp.113-26；and Mary Beard，S.P.Q.R.：A History of Ancient Rome（New York：Norton，2015），pp.428-34.

3　The Jews were by no means alone in their monotheism，but its consequences，for them，Christians，and Muslims，shaped subsequent history to a greater extent than in any other faith.For a useful introduction，see Jonathan Kirsch，God Against the Gods：The History of the War Between Monotheism and Polytheism（New York：Penguin，2005）.

4　Brilliantly documented in Jack Miles，God：A Biography（New York：Knopf，1995）.

5　Edward Gibbon，The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire（New York：Modern Library，1977），I，pp.382-83，386.

6　Ibid.，p.383.

7　Matthew 22：21.

8　St.Augustine，Confessions，translated by R.S.Pine-Coffin（New York：Penguin，1961），pp.28，32-33，39-41.The best biography is still Peter Brown's classic Augustine of Hippo：A Biography，revised edition（Berkeley：University of California Press，2000；first published in 1967）.

9　Augustine，Confessions，pp.45-53.

10　For a recent（and controversial）answer，see Robin Lane Fox，Augustine：Conversions to Confessions（New York：Basic Books，2015），especially pp.522-39.

11　Augustine，Confessions，p.36.

12　Brown，Augustine of Hippo，pp.431-37.

13　Ibid.，pp.131-33.

14　I owe this point to David Brooks，The Road to Character（New York：Random House，2015），p.212.

15　I've relied chiefly，as a guide，on G.R.Evans's introduction to St.Augustine，Concerning the City of God Against the Pagans，translated by Henry Bettenson（New York：Penguin，2003），pp.ⅸ-lⅶ，but also on notes prepared by Michael Gaddis，shared with me in a valiant effort to explain City.

16　See John Mark Mattox，Saint Augustine and the Theory of Just War（New York：Continuum，2006），pp.4-6；also David D.Corey and J.Daryl Charles，The Just War Tradition：An Introduction（Wilmington，Delaware：ISI Books，2012），p.53.

17　Ibid.，pp.56-57.

18　Such is the argument of Douglas Boin's Coming Out Christian in the Roman World：How the Followers of Jesus Made a Place in Caesar's Empire（New York：Bloomsbury，2015），but Gibbon in a backhanded way anticipated it by suggesting complacency，on the part of Rome's inattentive emperors，about Christianity's spread.

19　A kind of order exists even among thugs，as Augustine knew from his adolescent experience，and as viewers of The Sopranos，The Wire，and Breaking Bad will have reason to understand.

20　With the exception of the emperor Julian's failed attempt to restore the old gods during his brief reign，361-63.

21　Corey and Charles，The Just War Tradition，p.57.

22　Brown，Augustine of Hippo，pp.218-21.Although Brown later qualified this judgment in the light of new evidence，together with the admission that in the 1960s，when he was writing his first edition，authority figures tended especially to offend younger scholars.［Ibid.，p.446.］

23　See，for examples，Mattox，Augustine and the Theory of Just War，pp.48-49.

24　Ibid.，p.171.

25　As Homer and Virgil，the best ancient guides to the Underworld，make poignantly clear.

26　Corey and Charles survey the process in The Just War Tradition，chapters 4 through 9.

27　For an appreciation，see Brown，Augustine of Hippo，pp.491-93.

28　Lane Fox，Augustine，pp.2-3.

29　See James Turner Johnson，Just War Tradition and the Restraint of War：A Moral and Historical Inquiry（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2014；first published in 1981），especially pp.121-73.

30　I'm extending here，beyond her approval，I fear，a point made by G.R.Evans in her introduction to the City of God，p.ⅹlⅶ.

31　Michael Gaddis，There Is No Crime for Those Who Have Christ：Religious Violence in the Christian Roman Empire（Berkeley：University of California Press，2005），especially pp.131-50.

32　The unforgettable antihero of Voltaire's Candide，who saw everything，even the great Lisbon earthquake of 1759，as for the best.For Augustine's rationalizations，tracked with greater precision than I'm able to do here，see Mattox，Augustine and the Theory of Just War，pp.32-36，56-59，94-95，110-14，126-31.

33　Sebastian de Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell（New York：Random House，1989），pp.318-40.

34　The Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livius，translated by Leslie J.Walker，S.J.，with revisions by Brian Richardson（New York：Penguin，1970），p.97.See also De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，p.21.The best recent biography is Miles J.Unger，Machiavelli：A Biography（New York：Simon and Schuster，2011）.

35　The Prince，translated by Harvey C.Mansfield，second edition（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1998），p.103.See also De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，pp.58-70.

36　Brown，Augustine of Hippo，pp.400-410，thoroughly explains how.

37　Milan Kundera，The Unbearable Lightness of Being，translated by Michael Henry Heim（New York：Harper and Row，1984）.

38　The Prince，p.98.See also Unger，Machiavelli，pp.218-19.

39　Machiavelli in 1504 went so far as to support a scheme，conceived by Leonardo da Vinci，to isolate the rival city of Pisa by diverting the Arno.Fortune defeated the effort，though，through a combination of miscalculated topography，unexpected rainfall，and sabotage by clever Pisans.This was one of several bad breaks that brought an end to Machiavelli's official career.The details are in Unger，Machiavelli，pp.143-46.

40　Machiavelli's careful translator explains the linguistic nonequivalencies in The Prince，p.ⅹⅹⅴ.For a fuller discussion of the term，see Philip Bobbitt，The Garments of Court and Palace：Machiavelli and the World That He Made（New York：Grove Press，2013），pp.76-77.

41　The Prince，p.22.See also Unger，Machiavelli，pp.33-34.

42　Ibid.，p.273.

43　De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，p.64，suggests that Machiavelli read Augustine，but an electronic search turns up no mention of him in The Prince，The Discourses，or Machiavelli's less well-known The Art of War.There's a single glancing reference—not to Augustine but to a monk of his order—in Machiavelli's History of Florence and Italy.Nevertheless，there are parallels，perhaps best set forth in Paul R.Wright，“Machiavelli's City of God：Civil Humanism and Augustinian Terror，”in John Doody，Kevin L.Hughes，and Kim Paffenroth，eds.，Augustine and Politics（Lanham，Maryland：Lexington Books，2005），pp.297-336.

44　The Prince，pp.3-4；Unger，Machiavelli，pp.204-7.

45　Bobbitt，The Garments of Court and Palace，p.5.

46　For the book's reception and reputation，see ibid.，pp.8-16，and Unger，Machiavelli，pp.342-47.Jonathan Haslam tracks Machiavelli's influence on political science in No Virtue Like Necessity：Realist Thought in International Relations Since Machiavelli（New Haven：Yale University Press，2002）.The only book that rivals The Prince in unsettling my students is the second volume of Robert Caro's Lyndon B.Johnson biography，which argues that LBJ could never have given the 1965“We Shall Overcome”speech had he not stolen the 1948 Texas Democratic senatorial primary.

47　The Prince，pp.29-33.See also Unger，Machiavelli，pp.129-30，who notes that his subject probably witnessed the spectacle.Remirro's fate curiously parallels that of Pythias'unfortunate son at the hands of Xerxes，as described in Herodotus and cited in chapter one.

48　Quoted in Gaddis，There Is No Crime for Those Who Have Christ，p.138.

49　The phrase became notorious during the Vietnam War after the appearance of a brief news story，“Major Describes Move，”in the New York Times on February 8，1968.For the idea as applied to nuclear weapons in the Cold War，see Campbell Craig，Destroying the Village：Eisenhower and Thermonuclear War（New York：Columbia University Press，1998）.

50　The Prince，pp.22，35.

51　The quotes are from Mattox，Augustine and the Theory of Just War，p.60，and The Prince，p.61.They're worth comparing with Sun Tzu，The Art of War，translated by Samuel B.Griffith（New York：Oxford University Press，1963），p.77：“［T］o win one hundred victories”is not as skillful as“［t］o subdue the enemy without fighting.”

52　The Prince，p.61.

53　Harvey C.Mansfield，in his introduction，ibid.，p.ⅹⅰ.Italics added.

54　Charles Dickens，A Tale of Two Cities（New York：New American Library，1960），p.367.

55　The Prince，p.45.

56　Ibid.，p.4.

57　Ibid.，p.20.

58　Ibid.，p.39.

59　Ibid.，pp.38，40-41，61，66-67.

60　Unger，Machiavelli，p.54；Bobbitt，The Garments of Court and Palace，p.80.

61　Unger，Machiavelli，pp.132，238，255-56.

62　Ibid.，pp.261-62.

63　The best recent account，unsurprisingly，is Henry Kissinger，World Order（New York：Penguin，2014），pp.11-95，283-86.

64　The Discourses，p.275.

65　See，on these points，Unger，Machiavelli，pp.266-68；Kissinger，World Order，pp.256-69；and Bobbitt，The Garments of State and Palace，pp.155-64，who usefully reminds us that Machiavelli assumed the permanence of no international order，and that neither should we.

66　Isaiah Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”in Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind：An Anthology of Essays，edited by Henry Hardy and Roger Hausheer（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1998），pp.269-325.

67　Ibid.，p.279.

68　The Prince，pp.4，10.

69　Thomas Hobbes，Leviathan，edited by C.B.Macpherson（New York：Penguin，1985；first published in 1651），p.186.

70　Augustine，Confessions，p.28.

71　Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”pp.286-91.

72　Ibid.，pp.296-97，299.

73　Ibid.，pp.312-13.

74　Ibid.，p.310

75　Ibid.，pp.310-11.See also De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，p.311；and Gaddis，There Is No Crime for Those Who Have Christ，p.149.

76　Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”p.311.Italics added.Berlin attributes the insight to Sheldon S.Wolin.

77　“The Pursuit of the Ideal，”in Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind，pp.9-11.

78　Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”pp.324-25.

第五章

1　I've used Dictionary.com.

2　As argued，most famously，by Thomas Hobbes in Leviathan，first published in 1651.

3　Virginia Woolf，Orlando：A Biography（New York：Harcourt Brace，1956；first published in 1928），p.22.

4　Quoted in Geoffrey Parker，Imprudent King：A New Life of Philip Ⅱ（New Haven：Yale University Press，2014），p.363.

5　See Anne Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ（New York：Random House，2003；first published in 1991），p.572.

6　Parker，Imprudent King，p.366.

7　For a classic account，see Garrett Mattingly，The Armada（New York：Houghton Mifflin，1959），pp.11-12.Machiavelli was himself an occasional poet and a playwright.See Sebastian de Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell（New York：Random House，1989），pp.360-66.

8　Elizabeth I：Collected Works，edited by Leah S.Marcus，Janet Mueller，and Mary Beth Rose（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，2000），p.54.

9　Parker，Imprudent King，p.29；Miles J.Unger，Machiavelli：A Biography（New York：Simon and Schuster，2011），pp.343-44；and，for Elizabeth's linguistic proficiency，Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.11-12.

10　Robert Hutchinson，The Spanish Armada（New York：St.Martin's，2013），p.ⅹⅸ.Henry Ⅷ died in 1547，to be succeeded by his nine-year-old son，Edward Ⅵ，who in turn died in 1553.

11　Alison Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ（New York：Random House，2008；first published in 1998），p.11；A.N.Wilson，The Elizabethans（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，2011），pp.7-14，32-33.

12　The imperial title and its central European possessions went to Charles's brother Ferdinand，thereby splitting the Hapsburg empire into Austrian and Spanish branches，an early acknowledgment of what Paul Kennedy has called“imperial overstretch.”See his The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers：Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000（New York：Random House，1987），pp.48-49.

13　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.4-5，23.

14　Ibid.，p.276.See also Parker's second set of plates.

15　Geoffrey Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ（New Haven：Yale University Press，1998），p.72，contrasts Elizabeth's attitude toward delegation with that of Philip.

16　Mattingly，The Armada，p.24.

17　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.ⅹⅴ，61-64，85103-6；also Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.47-75；and Robert Goodwin，Spain：The Center of the World，1519-1682（New York：Bloomsbury，2015），pp.129-41.

18　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.43-49，51-58.For an assessment of England's strengths and weaknesses at the time of Elizabeth's accession，see Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers，pp.60-61.

19　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.42-43.

20　Ibid.，pp.311-12.

21　Ibid.，pp.48-51.

22　Ibid.，p.56.

23　Popes and Holy Roman emperors were elected，but even there blood ties were influential.

24　Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ，p.25；Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.91-92.

25　Ibid.，pp.50-51.

26　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.121-25.

27　For a list，see Arthur Salusbury MacNalty，Elizabeth Tudor：The Lonely Queen（London：Johnson Publications，1954），p.260.

28　Weir，The Life of Elizabeth I，pp.47-48.

29　Mattingly，The Armada，p.24.

30　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，p.151；Parker，Imprudent King，p.58.

31　Ibid.，p.364.The Hapsburgs also，through their intermarriages，debilitatingly depleted their gene pool.See ibid.，pp.180-81.

32　Ibid.，p.2.

33　For a sympathetic assessment，see Hugh Thomas，World Without End：Spain，Philip Ⅱ，and the First Global Empire（New York：Random House，2014），pp.285-99.

34　Mauricio Drelichman and Hans-Joachim Voth，Lending to the Borrower from Hell：Debt，Taxes，and Default in the Age of Philip Ⅱ（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2014）.For the more conventional argument on Philip's finances，see Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers，pp.46-47.

35　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.126，129，256-57.

36　Thomas，World Without End，p.17.

37　Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.11，26.See also Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.58-59.

38　I have based this paragraph on Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ.pp.17-18，and on Mattingly，The Armada，p.23.The“heart and stomach”quotation is in Elizabeth I's Collected Works，p.326.

39　James Anthony Froude，History of England from the Fall of Wolsey to the Defeat of the Spanish Armada（London：Longmans，Green，1870），Ⅻ，p.558.See also J.B.Black，The Reign of Elizabeth，1558-1603（Oxford：Oxford University Press，1959），p.23.

40　Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ，p.30.Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.72-88，provides a thorough analysis of Elizabeth's religious policies.

41　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.280-82；Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers，pp.60-61.For a thorough discussion of Elizabethan finance，see William Robert Smith，The Constitution and Finance of the English，Scottish and Irish Joint-Stock Companies to 1720（Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，1911），pp.493-99.

42　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.70-71.

43　For a rousing account，see A.N.Wilson's chapter on Sir Francis Drake in The Elizabethans，pp.173-84.

44　Thought，by a few fools even now，to have written the plays of William Shakespeare.

45　Weir，The Life of Elizabeth Ⅰ，p.257.The story first appeared in John Aubrey，Brief Lives，compiled between 1669 and 1696（Oxford：Clarendon Press，1898），p.305.

46　Niccolò Machiavelli，The Prince，translated by Harvey C.Mansfield，second edition（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1998），p.69.For Machiavelli's views on women，see ibid.，p.101；but also De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，pp.229-32.

47　Parker，Imprudent King，p.295.

48　William Shakespeare，Antony and Cleopatra，act 2，scene 2.

49　De Grazia，Machiavelli in Hell，pp.102-3.

50　N.A.M.Rodger，The Safeguard of the Sea：A Naval History of Britain，660-1649（New York：HarperCollins，1998），pp.238-48.

51　I've followed，in these paragraphs，Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.153-57.

52　Ibid.，pp.158-59.See also Christopher Tyerman，God's War：A New History of the Crusades（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2006），pp.902-3；and，on the evolution of Augustinian doctrine，James Turner Johnson，Just War Tradition and the Restraint of War：A Moral and Historical Inquiry（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1981），pp.167-69.

53　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.157-62.

54　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，p.246.

55　Ibid.，pp.237-38.

56　Ibid.，pp.249-62；Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.160-63.

57　Examples also include Julius Caesar，Caesar Augustus，Napoleon，the Duke of Wellington，Lincoln，and，as it happens，Philip Ⅱ.See Parker，Imprudent King，pp.293-94.

58　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.405-8；Parker，Imprudent King，pp.206-7.The quotation is from Stephen Alford，The Watchers：A Secret History of the Reign of Elizabeth I（New York：Bloomsbury，2012），p.ⅹⅶ.See also John Cooper，The Queen's Agent：Sir Francis Walsingham and the Rise of Espionage in Elizabethan England（New York：Pegasus，2012）.

59　John Guy，Elizabeth：The Forgotten Years（New York：Viking，2016），particularly emphasizes this point.

60　Lisa Hilton，Elizabeth：Renaissance Prince（New York：Houghton Mifflin Harcourt，2015），p.224.

61　Mattingly，The Armada，pp.75-76.See also Felipe Fernández-Armesto，Pathfinders：A Global History of Exploration（New York：Norton，2006），pp.129-38.

62　Rodger，The Safeguard of the Sea，pp.243-46.

63　Ibid.，pp.248-50.

64　Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ，pp.405-11.

65　Ibid.，pp.47-48，389-93，396-405.

66　Ibid.，pp.424-42.

67　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.163-69，179.The quotation is on p.166.

68　Ibid.，pp.179-80；Parker，Imprudent King，pp.281，305-7.For Philip's nonreaction to Mary's death，see Mattingly，The Armada，pp.69-81.

69　Parker，Imprudent King，pp.307-19.

70　Hutchinson，The Spanish Armada，p.52.

71　This，and the dates that follow，are New Style，the calendar employed in Europe at the time.The English calendar ran ten days behind in Elizabeth's time.

72　Hutchinson，The Spanish Armada，p.202；Parker，The Grand Strategy of PhilipⅡ，pp.269-70.

73　Philip sent two smaller armadas against England in 1596 and 1597，but storms forced both back before they'd even entered from the Channel.

74　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.270-71.See also Parker，Imprudent King，pp.324，367-68.

75　Ibid.，p.369.

76　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ.p.283.See also Barbara Farnham，ed.，Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks：Prospect Theory and International Conflict（Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press，1995）.

77　Parker，The Grand Strategy of Philip Ⅱ，pp.275-76.

78　Ibid.，p.276，and Imprudent King，p.369.

79　Speech of November 30，1601，in Elizabeth I's Collected Works，p.339.

80　Wilson，The Elizabethans，p.371.

81　Ibid.，pp.366-68.The definition comes，again，from Dictionary.com.

82　Robert B.Strassler，ed.，The Landmark Thucydides：A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War，a revised version of the Richard Crawley translation（New York：Simon and Schuster，1996），3：82.

83　Keith Roberts，Pavane（Baltimore：Old Earth Books，2011；first published in 1968），pp.11-12.Geoffrey Parker precedes me in using this passage to conclude his counterfactual account of the Armada's“success”in“The Repulse of the English Fireships，”in Robert Cowley，ed.，What If？The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been（New York：Berkley Books，1999），pp.149-50.

84　Roberts，Pavane，p.147.

85　Ibid.，pp.151，238-39.

86　I'm indebted to my colleague Paul Kennedy for pointing this out.

第六章

1　Keith Roberts，Pavane（Baltimore：Old Earth Books，2011；first published in 1968），p.11.

2　I echo here the title of Michel Faber's novel on faith and extraterrestrial exploration，The Book of Strange New Things（New York：Hogarth，2014）.Felipe Fernández-Armesto's Pathfinders：A Global History of Exploration（New York：Norton，2006）places the terrestrial process in a broad comparative context.

3　Jay Sexton，The Monroe Doctrine：Empire and Nation in Nineteenth-Century America（New York：Hill and Wang，2011），pp.3-8.

4　Geoffrey Parker，“The Repulse of the English Fireships，”in Robert Cowley，ed.，What If？The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been（New York：Berkley Books，1999），pp.141-42.

5　J.Hamel，Early English Voyages to Northern Russia（London：Richard Bentley，1857），p.5.

6　Fernandez-Armesto，Pathfinders，pp.218-22.See also，for Elizabeth's curiosity，A.N.Wilson，The Elizabethans（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，2011），pp.183-84；and，for cooling，Geoffrey Parker，Global Crisis：War，Climate Change，and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century（New Haven：Yale University Press，2013）.

7　J.H.Elliott，Empires of the Atlantic World：Britain and Spain in America，1492-1830（New Haven：Yale University Press，2006），pp.23-28.

8　Ibid.，p.177.

9　In this way resembling monoculture in forestry.See James C.Scott，Seeing Like a State：How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed（New Haven：Yale University Press，1998），pp.11-22.

10　Elliott，Empires of the Atlantic World，p.134.See also Nick Bunker，An Empire on the Edge：How Britain Came to Fight America（New York：Knopf，2014），pp.13-14.

11　I've adapted this paragraph from The Landscape of History，p.87，which in turn draws on M.Mitchell Waldrop，Complexity：The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos（New York：Viking，1992），pp.292-94.

12　Anne Somerset，Elizabeth Ⅰ（New York：Random House，1991），pp.188-91.

13　See Robert Tombs，The English and Their History（New York：Knopf，2015），pp.224-45.

14　Elliott，Empires of the Atlantic World，p.177.See also Tim Harris，Restoration：Charles Ⅱ and His Kingdoms，1660-1685（New York：Allen Lane，2005），especially pp.46-47.

15　The phrase is Daniel Defoe's，quoted in Tombs，The English and Their History，p.252.

16　Elliott，Empires of the Atlantic World，pp.150-52；also Steve Pincus，1688：The First Modern Revolution（New Haven：Yale University Press，2009），pp.316-22，475.

17　John Locke，Second Treatise of Government，1690，section 149.

18　Tombs，The English and Their History，p.263.

19　“Speech on Conciliation with America，”in The Writings and Speeches of Edmund Burke，Ⅲ，edited by W.M.Elofson（Oxford：Clarendon Press，1996），pp.118，124.David Bromwich provides context and analysis in The Intellectual Life of Edmund Burke：From the Sublime and Beautiful to American Independence（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2014），pp.228-61.

20　Gabriel Johnson to Lord Wilmington，February 10，1737，quoted in James A.Henretta，“Salutary Neglect”：Colonial Administration Under the Duke of Newcastle（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1972），p.324.

21　“Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind，”1751，published in 1755，The Papers of Benjamin Franklin，Digital Edition，Ⅳ，225-34.See also Dennis Hodgson，“Benjamin Franklin on Population：From Policy to Theory，”Population and Development Review 17（December 1991），639-61.

22　The details are in Ron Chernow，Washington：A Life（New York：Penguin，2010），pp.78-116.

23　Bunker，An Empire on the Edge，pp.17-18；Tombs，The English and Their History，p.348.See also Colin G.Calloway，The Scratch of a Pen：1763 and the Transformation of North America（New York：Oxford University Press，2006），pp.11-12.

24　A point made by Bromwich，The Intellectual Life of Edmund Burke，pp.190-91.

25　Speech to Parliament，May 13，1767，in Burke Writings and Speeches，Ⅱ，edited by Paul Langford（Oxford：Clarendon Press，1981），p.59.

26　Speech to Parliament，April 19，1769，in ibid.，p.231.

27　Speech to Parliament，March 22，1775，in ibid.，Ⅲ，pp.157，165.

28　Bromwich，The Intellectual Life of Edmund Burke，p.193.

29　See chapter two.

30　Thomas Paine，Common Sense（Wisehouse Classics，2015），p.21.See also Trevor Colbourn，The Lamp of Experience：Whig History and the Intellectual Origins oftheAmerican Revolution（Indianapolis：Liberty Fund，1998；originally published in 1965），pp.26，237-43；and Bernard Bailyn，“1776：A Year of Challenge—a World Transformed，”The Journal of Law and Economics 19（October 1976），especially pp.437-41.

31　Paine，Common Sense，pp.13-14，23.

32　Ibid.，pp.19，23-24.

33　Ibid.，pp.25-26.

34　For Paine's impact，see Joseph J.Ellis，American Creation：Triumphs and Tragedies at the Founding of the Republic（New York：Random House，2007），pp.41-44；John Ferling，Whirlwind：The American Revolution and the War That Won It（New York：Bloomsbury，2015），pp.141-43；and the chapter on Paine in Sophia Rosenfeld，Common Sense：A Political History（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2011）.

35　National Archives and Records Administration transcription of the Declaration of Independence，available at：www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters.Emphases added.

36　Joseph J.Ellis，American Sphinx：The Character of Thomas Jefferson（New York：Random House，1996），pp.11，27-28.

37　The phrase“clearer than truth”is Dean Acheson's，from his Present at the Creation：My Years in the State Department（New York：Norton，1969），p.375.

38　Ferling，Whirlwind，p.164.

39　Paine，Common Sense，p.39.

40　John Adams to Abigail Adams，July 3，1776，Adams Family Papers：An Electronic Archive，Massachusetts Historical Society：www.masshist.org/digitaladams/.Adams mistakenly believed that the celebrations would commemorate the signing on July 2，not the approval by the Continental Congress on July 4.

41　Paine，Common Sense，p.21；Benjamin Franklin to Joseph Priestley，October 3，1775，The Papers of Benjamin Franklin，Digital Edition，ⅩⅫ，217-18.See also Hodgson，“Benjamin Franklin on Population，”pp.653-54.

42　George Washington to John Adams，September 25，1798，quoted in Chernow，Washington，p.208.See also Ellis，American Creation，pp.4-5.

43　Eliga H.Gould，Among the Powers of the Earth：The American Revolution and the Making of a New World Empire（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2012），pp.10，142.

44　Quoted in ibid.，p.127.See also Ferling，Whirlwind，pp.235-38，320-21.

45　George C.Herring，From Colony to Superpower：U.S.Foreign Relations Since 1776（New York：Oxford University Press，2008），pp.26-34.

46　See Gordon S.Wood，The Creation of the American Republic，1776-1787（Chapel Hill：University of North Carolina Press，1998；first published in 1969），p.ⅸ.

47　Here I respectfully dissent from Ellis，American Creation，p.18，who dissents from himself，I think，on p.9.

48　Wood points out the parallel in Empire of Liberty：A History of the Early Republic，1787-1815（New York：Oxford University Press，2006），p.54.

49　Wood，The Creation of the American Republic，p.16.

50　Quoted in ibid.，p.395.I have followed，in these paragraphs，Wood's analysis in his chapter ten，but see also his summary in Empire ofLiberty，pp.14-20.

51　Quoted in Gould，Among the Powers of the Earth，p.128.

52　Travel times from the Mississippi to the East Coast could，in this pre-railroad era，approach those across the Atlantic before there were steamships.

53　Thoughts upon the Political Situation of the United States of America in Which That of Massachusetts Is More Particularly Considered，attributed to Jonathan Jackson（Worcester，Massachusetts，1788），pp.45-46，quoted in Gould，Among the Powers of the Earth，p.133.

54　For the pyramid，see David O.Stewart，Madison's Gift：Five Partnerships That Built America（New York：Simon and Schuster，2015），pp.18-25.

55　Chernow，Washington，pp.313，356，518，607-10.British repression after the Boston“tea party，”an earlier Massachusetts tax protest，had pushed Washington into rebellion［ibid.，pp.198-201］but Shays'Rebellion put the shoe on the other foot.

56　Washington in this sense，but few others，anticipated Woody Allen.

57　See www.comparativeconstitutionsproject.org/chronology/，based in turn on Zachary Elkins，Tom Ginsburg，and James Melton，The Endurance of National Constitutions（New York：Cambridge University Press，2009）.

58　The Constitution，without amendments，comes to about 4，500 words.The Federalist contains some 170，000.

59　Chernow，Hamilton，pp.261-69.

60　James Boswell，Life of Johnson，edited by R.W.Chapman（New York：Oxford University Press，1998；first published in 1791），p.849.

61　“We must，indeed，all hang together，or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.”［Quoted，without a source，in Jared Sparks，The Works of Benjamin Franklin（Boston：Hilliard Gray，1840），I，p.408.］

62　The Federalist，Modern Library College Edition（New York：Random House，no date），#1，pp.3-4.Emphases added.

63　See Lynne Cheney，James Madison：A Life Reconsidered（New York：Penguin，2014），pp.2-8.

64　Federalist#10，pp.53-58.Emphases in the original.

65　There are only three direct references to Machiavelli in the online edition of Madison's papers，none substantive.The link is：www.founders.archives.gov/about/Madison.

66　The Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livius，translated by Leslie J.Walker，S.J.，with revisions by Brian Richardson（New York：Penguin，1970），p.275；also chapter four.For a thorough recent discussion，see Alissa M.Ardito，Machiavelli and the Modern State：The Prince，the Discourses on Livy，and the Extended Territorial Republic（New York：Cambridge University Press，2015）.

67　Federalist#10，pp.60-61.For Burke's“inconveniences，”see his speech to Parliament of March 22，1775，discussed above.

68　For a similar argument about the Constitution，see Daniel M.Braun，“Constitutional Fracticality：Structure and Coherence in the Nation's Supreme Law，”Saint Louis University Law Journal 32（2013），389-410，although the Roman analogy is my own.

69　Akhil Reed Amar succinctly explains why in America's Constitution：A Biography（New York：Random House，2005），pp.19-21.

70　In its most recent official edition of the Constitution，the Government Printing Office，normally scrupulous in its neutrality，calls the exclusion a“strained attempt”that“scarcely hid the regional divisions that would remain unresolved under the terms of union agreed to in 1787.”［“Historical Note，”The Constitution of the United States of America，as Amended（Washington，D.C.：Government Printing Office，2007），p.ⅵ.］Madison may have influenced the editors，but he isn't referenced.

71　Federalist#42，#54，pp.272-73，358.

72　The choice is succinctly stated in Ellis，American Creation，pp.18-19.

73　Hamilton's argument is in Federalist#11，p.65，which，interestingly，immediately follows Madison's better-known#10.For Hamilton on slavery，see Chernow，Hamilton，pp.210-16.

74　Ellis，American Sphinx，pp.154-55.

75　Thomas Jefferson to John B.Colvin，September 20，1810，in the Founders Online edition of the Jefferson papers at：founders.archives.gov.The territory acquired ran from the Mississippi to Texas in the south，and to the intersection of the Rocky Mountains and the 49th parallel in the north.

76　John Quincy Adams to Abigail Adams，June 30，1811，quoted in Samuel Flagg Bemis，John Quincy Adams and the Foundations of American Foreign Policy（New York：Knopf，1949），p.182.

77　Elliott chronicles the process in his Empires of the Atlantic World，pp.369-402.

78　John Quincy Adams to George W.Erving，U.S.minister in Madrid，November 28，1818，quoted in Bemis，John Quincy Adams，p.327.See also Charles N.Edel，Nation Builder：John Quincy Adams and the Grand Strategy of the Republic（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2014），pp.138-54.

79　Thoroughly covered in William Earl Weeks，John Quincy Adams and American Global Empire（Lexington：University Press of Kentucky，1992），with full attention to how negotiation of the“Transcontinental Treaty”intersected with the earlier Florida controversy.

80　Monroe's message was the equivalent of what would later become the presidential State of the Union address，but in the nineteenth century they weren't given in person.

81　Sexton，The Monroe Doctrine，pp.49-50.

82　Federalist#11，p.65.

83　The quotations are from Adams's diary，March 3 and November 29，1820，quoted in Edel，Nation Builder，pp.157-59.Edel analyzes Adams's dilemma in terms of Isaiah Berlin's irreconcilable incompatibilities，discussed in chapter four.

84　Charles H.Sherrill，“The Monroe Doctrine and the Canning Myth，”The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 94（July 1914），96-97.See also Wendy Hinde，George Canning（Oxford：Basil Blackwell，1989），pp.345-74，422.

85　The quotation is from the typescript notes for the speech，in the Churchill Archive，CHAR 9/140A/9-28，at：www.churchillarchive.com.For background，see John Lukacs，Five Days in London：May 1940（New Haven：Yale University Press，1999）.

86　“Reply of a South American to a Gentleman of This Island［Jamaica］，”September 6，1815，in Selected Writings of Bolivar，translated by Lewis Bertrand（New York：Colonial Press，1951），I，p.118.

87　Bolivar's argument here anticipates Jared Diamond，who has argued that it is far easier to organize regions spread across latitude than longitude.See his Guns，Germs，and Steel：The Fates of Human Societies（New York：Norton，1999），pp.176-91.

88　Bolívar，“Reply，”pp.109，118.The Greeks，of course，didn't build a single state either，but maybe Bolivar，like Keats placing“stout Cortez”on a peak in Darien，merits a certain poetic license.Panama seems to bring out the need for one.

89　Bolivar，“Reply，”p.111.

90　Ibid.，p.122.

91　Sexton，The Monroe Doctrine，provides the context at pp.36-46.

92　Available online at：www.millercenter.org/president/jqadams/speeches/speech-3484.

第七章

1　Leo Tolstoy，War and Peace，translated by Richard Pevear and Larissa Volokhonsky（New York：Knopf，2007），p.774.For more on this passage，see W.B.Gallie，Philosophers of Peace and War：Kant，Clausewitz，Marx，Engels and Tolstoy（New York：Cambridge University Press，1978），pp.117-19；and Lawrence Freedman，Strategy：A History（New York：Oxford University Press，2013），pp.98-99.I've adapted portions of this chapter from my article“War，Peace，and Everything：Thoughts on Tolstoy，”Cliodynamics：The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2（2011），40-51.

2　Donald Stoker，Clausewitz：His Life and Work（New York：Oxford University Press，2014），pp.94-128.

3　Alan Forrest and Andreas Herberg-Rothe assess the likelihood in their respective contributions to Rick McPeak and Donna Tussing Orwin，eds.，Tolstoy on War：Narrative Art and Historical Truth in“War and Peace”（Ithaca：Cornell University Press，2012），pp.115，143-44.

4　Michael Howard，“The Influence of Clausewitz，”in Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976），pp.32-41；also Christopher Bassford，Clausewitz in English：The Reception of Clausewitz in Britain and America，1815-1945（New York：Oxford University Press，1994）.

5　Clausewitz，On War，p.113.Emphasis added.

6　Tolstoy，War and Peace，pp.799-801.

7　Clausewitz，On War，p.467.

8　Ibid.，p.370.

9　Mikhail Kizilov，“The Tsar in the Queen's Room：The Visit of Russian Emperor Alexander Ito Oxford in 1814，”no date，available at：www.academia.com.

10　Clausewitz，On War，p.605.

11　“A Few Words Apropos of the Book War and Peace，”in Tolstoy，War and Peace，p.1217.

12　“The Hedgehog and the Fox，”in Isaiah Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind：An Anthology of Essays，edited by Henry Hardy and Roger Hausheer（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1997），p.458.

13　Clausewitz employs a wrestling analogy as early as the second paragraph of On War，p.75.

14　Tolstoy，War and Peace，p.1200.

15　Clausewitz，On War，p.151.Emphasis added.

16　“Author's Preface to an Unpublished Manuscript on the Theory of War，”in ibid.，p.61.

17　Peter Paret，Clausewitz and the State：The Man，His Theories，and His Times（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1985：first published by Oxford University Press in 1976），pp.169-79.

18　Michael Howard，Clausewitz：A Very Short Introduction（New York：Oxford University Press，2002），p.41.Sir Michael doubts（p.21）that Clausewitz，even if blessed with longevity，would have employed it to achieve brevity.

19　Tolstoy，War and Peace，p.1181.

20　Dictionary.com.

21　Andrew Roberts，Napoleon：A Life（New York：Viking，2014），pp.577-80，634-35.

22　Clausewitz，On War，pp.75-76.The first italics are in the original；the remaining ones are mine.

23　I'm following here—although oversimplifying—Gallie，Philosophers of Peace and War，p.52；also Howard，Clausewitz，pp.13-14，and Peter Paret，“The Genesis of On War，”in Clausewitz，On War，pp.2-3，15-16.

24　Clausewitz，On War，p.523.

25　Howard，Clausewitz，pp.4，18-19.For the Americans'role，see R.R.Palmer's classic The Age of Democratic Revolution：A Political History of Europe and America，1760-1800（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2014；first published in two volumes in 1959 and 1964）.

26　These English equivalents for Clausewitz's term Politik draw on Bassford，Clausewitz in English，p.22.

27　Thereby anticipating fears of all-out thermonuclear war during the Cold War，one of several reasons for the post-World War Ⅱ revival of interest in Clausewitz.An influential example is Bernard Brodie，War and Politics（New York：Macmillan，1973）.

28　Clausewitz，On War，p.87.

29　Roberts，Napoleon，pp.555-79，provides a thorough account.

30　The exception was the Peninsular Campaign in Spain and Portugal.

31　Quoted in Roberts，Napoleon，p.595.

32　For Kutuzov's abandonment of Moscow，see Dominic Lieven，Russia Against Napoleon：The True Story of the Campaigns of War and Peace（New York：Viking，2010），pp.209-14.

33　Clausewitz，On War，p.97.

34　Ibid.，p.161.For the role of emotion in Clausewitz's thinking，see Jon Tetsuro Sumida，“The Relationship of History and Theory in On War：The Clausewitzian Ideal and Its Implications，”Journal of Military History 65（April 2001），337-38.

35　Tolstoy，War and Peace，pp.993，1000-1001.

36　Roberts，Napoleon，pp.612-34；also Lieven，Russia Against Napoleon，pp.252-57.

37　John Quincy Adams to John Adams，August 16，1812，and to Abigail Adams，December 31，1812，quoted in Samuel Flagg Bemis，John Quincy Adams and the Foundations ofAmerican Foreign Policy（New York：Knopf，1949），pp.177-78.

38　Clausewitz，On War，pp.100，112.

39　Sumida，“The Relationship of History and Theory in On War，”pp.345-48.

40　Clausewitz，On War，pp.102，109.Which is similar，I think，to what Malcolm Gladwell describes in Blink：The Power of Thinking Without Thinking（New York：Little，Brown，2005）.

41　See chapter four.

42　Ibid.，pp.104，119.For Tolstoy on travelers，inns，and plans gone awry，see War and Peace，pp.347-49.

43　Paret，Clausewitz and the State，pp.197-99，provides a thorough discussion.

44　Roberts，Napoleon，p.596.

45　“Preface to an Unpublished Manuscript，”in Clausewitz，On War，p.61.

46　See，for elaborations，Hew Strachan，Carl von Clausewitz's On War：A Biography（London：Atlantic Books，2007），p.153；Howard，Clausewitz，p.25；and Fred R.Shapiro，The Yale Book of Quotations（New Haven：Yale University Press，2006），for admirably comprehensive derivations of the last two principles.

47　Clausewitz，On War，p.120.

48　Ibid.，p.103.

49　Ibid.，p.112.

50　Tolstoy，War and Peace，pp.618-27.

51　Ibid.，pp.738-45.

52　See chapter three.

53　“Preface to an Unpublished Manuscript，”in Clausewitz，On War，p.61.

54　Ibid.，pp.122，141，374.

55　Ibid.，p.142.

56　Ibid.，pp.168-69.Emphases in the original.

57　Quoted in Stoker，Clausewitz，p.109.

58　Tolstoy，War and Peace，p.640.

59　Pierre and Natasha do this at the end of War and Peace，pp.1174-77.

60　Clausewitz，On War，pp.85-86.

61　Ibid.，p.89.

62　See Alan Beyerchen，“Clausewitz，Nonlinearity，and the Unpredictability of War，”International Security 17（Winter 1992-93），especially pp.61-72.

63　Clausewitz，On War，pp.107，135.

64　Ibid.，p.595.

65　See chapter four.

66　Tolstoy，War and Peace，p.1203.

67　For more on this，see chapter six.

68　Tolstoy，War and Peace，pp.1212-13.

69　A.N.Wilson，Tolstoy（New York：Norton，1988），pp.297-301.

70　A point well made in Paret，Clausewitz and the State，p.338.

71　See Paul Bracken，“Net Assessment：A Practical Guide，”Parameters（Spring 2006），90-100.

72　Clausewitz，On War，p.158.

73　Never better explained than in John Keegan，The Face of Battle：A Study of Agincourt，Waterloo，and the Somme（New York：Penguin，1983）.

74　Lieven，Russia Against Napoleon，p.259.

75　The Federalist，Modem Library College Edition（New York：Random House，no date），#28，p.171.

76　Clausewitz，On War，p.523.

第八章

1　Adams was there as United States minister from 1809 to 1814，but he'd also spent 1781-82 as a teenage French translator for Francis Dana，who'd unsuccessfully sought diplomatic recognition from Catherine Ⅱ.James Traub，John Quincy Adams：Militant Spirit（New York：Basic Books，2016），pp.28-30，160-82，provides the best recent account.

2　John Quincy Adams diary，May 8，1824，Massachusetts Historical Society online edition，at：www.masshist.org/jqadiaries.See also Charles Edel，Nation Builder：John Quincy Adams and the Grand Strategy of the Republic（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2014），pp.194-96.The Adams diaries，some fourteen thousand pages in fifty-one volumes，extend，with gaps，from 1779 to 1848.For a new abridgement，see John Quincy Adams：Diaries，edited by David Waldstreicher，two volumes（New York：Library of America，2017）.

3　See Samuel Flagg Bemis，John Quincy Adams and the Foundations ofAmerican Foreign Policy（New York：Knopf，1949），especially pp.566-72.

4　Washington，Jefferson，Madison，and Monroe had all come from Virginia.

5　Adams diary，May 8，1824.

6　For his annihilation of the British at the battle of New Orleans，fought in January 1815，after Adams and his fellow peace negotiators had concluded the Treaty of Ghent on December 24，1814，but before word of it had crossed the Atlantic.

7　Sean Wilentz，The Rise of American Democracy：Jefferson to Lincoln（New York：Norton，2005），p.255.See also Edel，Nation Builder，p.192.

8　The Adams message，dated December 6，1825，is available online from the University of Virginia's Miller Center of Public Affairs at：www.millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/december-6-1825-message-regardingcongress-american-nations.For its reception，see Traub，John Quincy Adams，pp.322-27；also Fred Kaplan，John Quincy Adams：American Visionary（New York：HarperCollins，2014），pp.404-5.

9　These explanations appear，respectively，in Edel，Nation Builder，p.188；Traub，John Quincy Adams，p.294；Walter Russell Mead，Special Providence：American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World（New York：Knopf，2001），pp.218-63；and Robert Kagan，Dangerous Nation：America's Place in the World from Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century（New York：Knopf，2006），pp.265-300.For Adams on the Missouri Compromise，see chapter six.

10　The Congressional Globe for February 21，1848，records two votes on the resolution，with Adams and Lincoln both against in each instance.Just after the second，the Globe notes a hasty adjournment after“the venerable John Quincy Adams...was observed to be sinking from his seat in what appeared to be the agonies of death.”See also Traub，John Quincy Adams，pp.525-28.

11　Michael Burlingame，Abraham Lincoln：A Life，vol.12 vols.（Baltimore：Johns Hopkins University Press，2008），pp.4，26-27，43-44，172.Mark Twain's novel wouldn't appear in the United States until 1885.

12　Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.1，41-42.See also Richard Carwardine，Lincoln：A Life of Purpose and Power（New York：Random House，2006），pp.50-51.

13　Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.53-56.See also Doris Kearns Gopdwin，Team of Rivals：The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln（New York：Simon and Schuster，2005），p.50.

14　Carwardine，Lincoln，pp.39-40.

15　Fred Kaplan，Lincoln：The Biography of a Writer（New York：HarperCollins，2008），especially pp.30-59.

16　Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.51，66-71，75-81.Lincoln's military service took place，he'd have said ingloriously，as a volunteer in the Black Hawk War of 1832.The New Salem general store he co-owned briefly went bankrupt，and he appears to have spent more time as the town's postmaster telling stories than putting up mail.Rail-splitting，I've had to explain to my students，involved the construction of wooden fences，not railroads.

17　Ibid.，pp.71-75，81-85.

18　A process described carefully in Wilentz，The Rise of American Democracy，pp.482-518.

19　Although their successful candidate，William Henry Harrison，died shortly after taking office in 1841，leaving the vice president John Tyler，a closeted southern Democrat，to succeed him.

20　Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.264-70.

21　Ibid.，pp.296-310.

22　Lincoln speech at Peoria，Illinois，October 16，1854，in Abraham Lincoln Speeches and Writings，1832-1858（New York：Library of America，1989），pp.337-38［hereafter Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ］.All capitalizations and emphases from this source are in the original.

23　The compromise of 1820 admitted Missouri to the Union as a slave state，but left territories to the north and west of it，as far as the Rocky Mountains，free.In the 1850 compromise that followed the Mexican War，California became a free state，with slavery to be allowed in the New Mexico and Utah territories if their citizens supported it.

24　Lincoln to George Robertson，August 15，1855，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.359.For the increasing profitability of slavery，see Sven Beckert，Empire of Cotton：A Global History（New York：Knopf，2014），pp.105-20.

25　Lewis E.Lehrman，Lincoln at Peoria：The Turning Point（Mechanicsburg，Pennsylvania：Stackpole Books，2008），pp.71-99，provides a careful assessment of Douglas and his motives.See also Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.370-74.

26　Quoted in ibid.，p.374.

27　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.315.Lincoln spoke at Springfield on October 4 and in Peoria on October 16，1854，with Douglas present on both occasions.Only the Peoria version of the speech was published，however.Lehrman，Lincoln at Peoria，provides the best account of the speech's origins，content，and implications.

28　Burlingame describes the circuit in Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.322-32.

29　Ibid.，p.418.

30　Ibid.，pp.333-34.For Adams on Euclid，see his diary，March 26，1786.

31　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.303.

32　Ibid.，pp.322，328-33.

33　Lehrman，Lincoln at Peoria，p.107，calls this a“hijacking，”although a“sincere and shrewd”one.

34　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，pp.308-9，316-17，320-21，323，337，340.

35　Goodwin makes a similar point in Team of Rivals，p.103.

36　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.426.See also Wilentz，The Rise ofAmerican Democracy，pp.677-715.

37　For Dred Scott v.Sandford，see Don E.Fehrenbacher，The Dred Scott Case：Its Significance in American Law and Politics（New York：Oxford University Press，1978）.

38　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.426.

39　Douglas had included the most inflammatory provision of the Kansas-Nebraska Act，the explicit repeal of the Missouri Compromise，only at the last minute because southern congressmen made it the price of their support.See Wilentz，The Rise ofAmerican Democracy，p.672.

40　The quotation is from Jesus，at Mark 3：25.

41　Lincoln Speeches and Writings I，p.426.

42　The voluminous transcripts are in ibid.，pp.495-822.

43　Ibid.，pp.769，814.

44　Senators would not be popularly elected until after the ratification of the Seventeenth Amendment，in 1913.

45　I'm appropriating here J.H.Hexter's taxonomy in his On Historians（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，1979），pp.241-43.Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，pp.598-99，explains the origins of Lincoln's nickname.

46　With a few exceptions，summarized in Carwardine，Lincoln，pp.93-94.

47　Their portraits，as they appeared in Harper's，are in Goodwin，Team of Rivals，pp.1-2.

48　Lincoln to Samuel Galloway，March 24，1860，in Abraham Lincoln Speeches and Writings，1859-1865（New York：Library of America，1989），p.152［hereafter Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ］.

49　See ibid.，pp.29-101，111-50.

50　He'd have had in mind the“corrupt bargain”charges that ruined John Quincy Adams's presidency.

51　Kevin Peraino，Lincoln in the World：The Making of a Statesman and the Dawn ofAmericanPower（New York：Crown，2013），pp.7-8.

52　Burlingame，Lincoln I，pp.627-83，provides a full account.

53　Quoted in Goodwin，Team of Rivals，p.319.See also Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，p.720.

54　Lincoln to William Seward，February 1，1861，in Lincoln Speeches and WritingsⅡ，p.197.For Lincoln's consideration of compromises，see Burlingame，LincolnⅠ，pp.745-53.

55　Parmenas Taylor Turnley，Reminiscences，From the Cradle to Three-Score and Ten（Chicago：Donohue and Henneberry，1892），p.264.I owe this quotation to Burlingame，who cites it incorrectly in Lincoln Ⅰ，p.903.

56　Thus echoing the Athenians at Sparta.

57　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，pp.215-24.

58　James M.McPherson，Tried by War：Abraham Lincoln as Commander in Chief（New York：Penguin，2008），pp.20-21.

59　Carwardine，Lincoln，pp.24-26.

60　Russell F.Weigley，The American Way of War：A History of United States Military Strategy and Policy（New York：Macmillan，1973），pp.97-127.

61　Henry Halleck to Lincoln，January 6，1862，quoted in McPherson，Tried by War，p.70.See also Weigley，The American Way of War，p.83；and Mark Greenbaum，“Lincoln's Do-Nothing Generals，”New York Times，November 27，2011.

62　Lincoln to Halleck and Don C.Buell，January 13，1862，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.302.

63　See Weigley，The American Way of War，p.95；and McPherson，Tried by War，pp.70-71.

64　Weigley，The American Way of War，pp.77-91；Peter Paret，Clausewitz and the State：The Man，His Theories，and His Times（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1985；first published by Oxford University Press in 1976），pp.152-53；Christopher Bassford，Clausewitz in English：The Receptionof Clausewitz in Britain and America，1815-1945（New York：Oxford University Press，1994），pp.56-59.Francis Lieber，a Prussian émigre whose writings on the laws of war influenced Lincoln，was a careful student of Clausewitz，whom he read in the original German.See John Fabian Witt，Lincoln's Code：The Laws of War in American History（New York：Free Press，2012），pp.185-86.

65　McPherson lists the failed generals in Tried by War，p.8.

66　Ibid.，p.142；also James M.McPherson，Abraham Lincoln and the Second American Revolution（New York：Oxford University Press，1991），pp.68-72.

67　Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976），p.75.

68　Quoted in Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，p.154；also Lincoln to Orville H.Browning.September 22，1861，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.269.

69　Allen C.Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation：The End of Slavery in America（New York：Simon and Schuster，2004），pp.31-33，46-59.

70　Lincoln to Albert G.Hodges，April 4，1864，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.585.

71　Clausewitz，On War，p.87.See also McPherson，Tried by War，pp.5-6.

72　Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，pp.3-4；McPherson，Lincoln and the Second American Revolution，p.91.Clausewitz states his paradox in On War，p.119.

73　McPherson，Tried by War，p.52.

74　Quoted in ibid.，p.66.

75　McPherson，Lincoln and the Second American Revolution，pp.85-86.

76　Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，pp.83-90；McPherson，Tried by War，pp.158-59.

77　Lincoln to Greeley，August 22，1862，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.358；Carwardine，Lincoln，p.209.

78　Charles Francis Adams，John Quincy Adams and Emancipation Under Martial Law（1819-1842），in Adams and Worthington Chauncey Ford，John Quincy Adams（Cambridge，Massachusetts：John Wilson and Son，1902），pp.7-79.See also Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，pp.123-27；and Witt，Lincoln's Code，pp.204-5.

79　Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation，September 22，1862，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.368.

80　Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，p.173.

81　Annual Message to Congress，December 1，1862，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，pp.393-415.

82　Eulogy on Henry Clay，July 6，1852，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅰ，p.264.

83　See，for example，ibid.，pp.315，340.

84　Special Message to Congress，July 4，1861，Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.259.

85　Quoted in Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，p.167.

86　Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，pp.409-11.

87　See note 8，above.

88　Edel，Nation Builder，p.298；Kagan，Dangerous Nation，pp.258-64，269；McPherson，Lincoln and the Second American Revolution，pp.39-40.

89　Peraino，Lincoln in the World，pp.183，187.

90　Beckert，Empire of Cotton，pp.242-65；Witt，Lincoln's Code，pp.142-57.

91　Quoted in Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，pp.119，167.

92　Peraino，Lincoln in the World，pp.66-69；also Walter Stahr，Seward：Lincoln's Indispensable Man（New York：Simon and Schuster，2012），pp.269-73.

93　Lincoln to Seward，April 1，1861（apparently not sent），in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.228.

94　Witt，Lincoln's Code，pp.164-69.See also Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，pp.221-29；and Peraino，Lincoln in the World，pp.123-62.

95　For a good account of this neglected episode，see ibid.，pp.224-95.Maximilian went to Mexico anyway，despite Union victories and Napoleon's withdrawal of support.He wound up before a firing squad there in 1867.

96　Richard Overy，Why the Allies Won（London：Pimlico，1995），pp.282-313，stresses the importance of moral high ground in a more recent major war.

97　Peraino，Lincoln in the World，pp.207-15；Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，pp.253-54.For an older but comprehensive assessment，see D.P.Crook，The North，the South，and the Powers，1861-1865（New York：Wiley，1974），pp.236-55.

98　Beckert，Empire of Cotton，pp.265-67.See also McPherson，Lincoln and the SecondAmerican Revolution，pp.ⅶ-ⅷ，6-7.

99　Ibid.，pp.17-18.

100　Memorandum on Probable Failure of Re-election，August 23，1864，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.624.For more on the“blind memorandum，”which Lincoln made his cabinet sign but only later allowed them to read，see Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，pp.674-76.

101　McPherson，Tried by War，pp.231-44.

102　Quoted in Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅱ，p.729.

103　Address of the International Working Men's Association to Abraham Lincoln，President of the United States of America，written by Marx in late November 1864，and presented to Ambassador Charles Francis Adams，January 28，1865，available at：www.marxists.org/archive/marx/iwma/documents/1864/lincolnletter.htm.

104　Quoted in Edel，Nation Builder，pp.157-59.For the context，see chapter six.

105　J.David Hacker，“Recounting the Dead，”New York Times，September 20，2011.The regimental figures are from www.civilwararchive.com/regim.htm，and the service estimates from www.civilwar.org/education/history/faq.The best overall account is Drew Gilpin Faust，This Republic of Suffering：Death and the American Civil War（New York：Knopf，2008）.

106　See note 55，above.

107　McPherson，Lincoln and the Second American Revolution，pp.23-25，41-42.

108　Weigley，The American Way of War，pp.ⅹⅹⅰ-ⅹⅹⅲ；also Paul Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers：Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000（New York：Random House，1987），pp.178-82.

109　Gettysburg Address，Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，November 19，1863；ibid.，p.536；Edel，Nation Builder，stresses this line of inheritance at pp.297-99.

110　Burlingame，Lincoln Ⅰ，p.ⅹⅱ.Burlingame's“conclusion”comes at the beginning of his 1976-page two-volume biography.

111　I'm expanding，here，on an argument made in McPherson，Lincoln and the Second American Revolution，pp.93-95.

112　It's revealing，in this respect，to compare Federalist#10 with the constitutional doctrines of the mature John C.Calhoun，who saw costs in all compromises.See Merrill D.Peterson，The Great Triumvirate：Webster，Clay，and Calhoun（New York：Oxford University Press，1987），pp.409-13.

113　See Carwardine，Lincoln，pp.221-35.

114　Ibid.，p.228.

115　Guelzo，Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation，pp.171-72.

116　“Meditation on the Divine Will，”September 1862，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.359.

117　Ibid.，p.687.

118　Lee surrendered，at Appomattox，on April 9，1865.

119　See Rosamund Bartlett，Tolstoy：A Russian Life（Boston：Houghton Mifflin Harcourt，2011），pp.251-93.

120　Lincoln to Albert G.Hodges，April 4，1864，in Lincoln Speeches and Writings Ⅱ，p.586.

第九章

1　Andrew Roberts，Salisbury：Victorian Titan（London：Phoenix，2000），pp.46-50，170.I prefer the term“Great War”for the years before anyone knew to call it“World War I.”

2　Walter Stahr，Seward：Lincoln's Indispensable Man（New York：Simon and Schuster，2012），pp.482-504.For the larger pattern of decentralization，see John A.Thompson，A Sense of Power：The Roots of America's Global Role（Ithaca：Cornell University Press，2015），pp.38-39.

3　Robert Kagan，Dangerous Nation：America's Place in the World from Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century（New York：Knopf，2006），p.302；also C.Vann Woodward，“The Age of Reinterpretation，”American Historical Review 66（October 1960），2-8.

4　Roberts，Salisbury，pp.105-6，436-37，490.

5　Olney's July 20 note is in U.S.Department of State，Papers Relating to the Foreign Affairs of the United States，1895，vol.I，pp.542-63.Jay Sexton，The Monroe Doctrine：Empire and Nation in Nineteenth-Century America（New York：Hill and Wang，2011），pp.201-8，provides context.

6　The classic account is Henry Kissinger，“The White Revolutionary：Reflections on Bismarck，”Daedalus 97（Summer 1968），888-924.See also Jonathan Steinberg，Bismarck：A Life（New York：Oxford University Press，2011），pp.441-50.

7　Quoted in Paul Kennedy，The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism，1860-1914（London：Allen and Unwin，1980），p.220.

8　Roberts，Salisbury，pp.619-26；Kennedy，The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism，pp.464-65.See also Paul Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers：Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000（New York：Random House，1987），p.201.

9　Quoted in Roberts，Salisbury，p.610.

10　For comprehensive accounts，see Bradford Perkins，The Great Rapprochement：England and the United States，1895-1914（New York：Atheneum，1968）；Stephen R.Rock，Why Peace Breaks Out：Great Power Rapprochement in Historical Perspective（Chapel Hill：University of North Carolina Press，1989），pp.24-63；and Charles A.Kupchan，How Enemies Become Friends：The Sources of Stable Peace（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2010），pp.73-111.

11　See Roberts，Salisbury，p.633.For an alternative view，see Michael Howard，The Continental Commitment：The Dilemma of British Defence Policy in the Era of the Two World Wars（London：Ashfield Press，1989；first published in 1972），pp.29-30.

12　The phrase is from Georgi Arbatov，as quoted in Jean Davidson，“UCI Scientists Told Moscow's Aim Is to Deprive U.S.of Foe，”Los Angeles Times，December 12，1988.

13　Roberts，Salisbury，pp.51-52.

14　See chapter six.

15　Quoted in Roberts，Salisbury，p.662.

16　Ibid.，p.512.

17　H.J.Mackinder，“The Geographical Pivot of History，”The Geographical Journal 23（April 1904），421-44.See also Brian W.Blouet，Halford Mackinder：A Biography（College Station：Texas A& M University Press，1987）；and，for the railroad revolution，Christian Wolmar，Blood，Iron，and Gold：How the Railroads Transformed the World（New York：Public Affairs，2010）.

18　Mackinder，“The Geographical Pivot of History，”p.437.

19　Blouet，Mackinder，pp.118-20.

20　For background on the Crowe memorandum，which remained unpublished until 1928，see K.M.Wilson，“Sir Eyre Crowe on the Origin of the Crowe Memorandum of l January 1907，”Historical Research 56（November 1983），238-41；also Zara S.Steiner，The Foreign Office and Foreign Policy，1898-1914（Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，1969），pp.108-18；and，for Crowe's continuing influence，Jeffrey Stephen Dunn，The Crowe Memorandum：Sir Eyre Crowe and Foreign Office Perceptions of Germany，1918-1925（Newcastle upon Tyne：Cambridge Scholars Publishing，2013）.I've discussed the“long telegram”in George F.Kennan：An American Life（New York：Penguin，2011），pp.215-22.

21　Memorandum on the Present State of British Relations with France and Germany，January 1，1907，in British Documents on the Origins of the War，1898-1914，Ⅲ，pp.397-420，available at：www.dbpo.chadwyck.com/marketing/index.jsp.All quotations below are from this version.

22　See chapter two.

23　For a 1951 version of this argument，see my George F.Kennan，p.415.

24　Steinberg，Bismarck，pp.180-81.

25　For Bismarck's colonial policy，see Kennedy，The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism，pp.167-83.

26　Emphasis added.

27　The classic account remains Barbara Tuchman，The Guns of August（New York：Macmillan，1962）.But see also Christopher Clark，The Sleepwalkers：How Europe Went to War in 1914（New York：HarperCollins，2013）；Margaret MacMillan，The War That Ended Peace：The Road to 1914（New York：Random House，2013）；and Sean McMeekin，July 1914：Countdown to War（New York：Basic Books，2013）.

28　Wikipedia thoroughly assesses the complicated statistics.

29　Henry Kissinger，Diplomacy（New York：Simon and Schuster，1994），p.200.

30　Howard，The Continental Commitment，pp.30-31.

31　Total British army deaths，including those from the dominions and the colonies，exceeded 900，000（www.1914-1918.net/faq.htm）.The maximum estimate for Civil War deaths is now 750，000，as discussed in chapter eight.

32　Sir John Robert Seeley，The Expansion of England：Two Courses of Lectures（New York：Cosimo Classics，2005；first published in 1891），p.8.

33　Mackinder himself developed this idea in a book，Democratic Ideals and Reality：A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction（New York：Henry Holt，1919），which never gained the influence of his article.See also Blouet，Mackinder，pp.164-65.

34　Roberts，Salisbury，pp.812-14.

35　See Christopher Howard，“Splendid Isolation，”History 47，159（1962），32-41.

36　Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers，p.248.The comparisons in this paragraph are from pp.200-202；but see also Robert J.Gordon，The Rise and Fall of American Growth：The U.S.Standard of Living Since the Civil War（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2016），pp.27-318.

37　Kennedy，The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers，p.248.

38　See Walter Lippmann，U.S.Foreign Policy：Shield of the Republic（Boston：Little，Brown，1943），especially pp.11-26.

39　I owe this point to Michael Howard，in The Continental Commitment，p.9.See also Thompson，A Sense of Power，pp.41-43.

40　Quoted in John Milton Cooper，Woodrow Wilson：A Biography（New York：Random House，2009），p.263.

41　Charles E.Neu，Colonel House：A Biography of Woodrow Wilson's Silent Partner（New York：Oxford University Press，2015），pp.23，142.House wasn't a real colonel，but had been awarded that title by Texas governor James Stephen Hogg in 1893，presumably for political services rendered.

42　David Milne，Worldmaking：The Art and Science of American Diplomacy（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，2015），pp.95-96.

43　Neu，Colonel House，p.142；also Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，pp.263-66.

44　See Katherine C.Epstein，Torpedo：Inventing the Military-Industrial Complex in the United States and Great Britain（Cambridge，Massachusetts：Harvard University Press，2014）.

45　Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，pp.285-89；also Erik Larson，Dead Wake：The Last Crossing of the Lusitania（New York：Broadway Books，2015）.

46　Neu，Colonel House，p.270.

47　Thomas Boghardt，The Zimmermann Telegram：Intelligence，Diplomacy，and America's Entry into World War I（Annapolis：Naval Institute Press，2012）.

48　Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，p.387；also David Runciman，The Confidence Trap：A History of Democracy in Crisis from World War I to the Present（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2013），pp.39-40.

49　Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，p.380.

50　Ibid.，pp.341-42，462-66；also A.Scott Berg，Wilson（New York：G.P.Putnam's Sons，2013），pp.515-23.

51　Neu，Colonel House，p.384；Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，p.421.

52　Paul Cambon，quoted in Berg，Wilson，p.534.See also Cooper，Woodrow Wilson，p.419，and，for an overall assessment，Gaddis Smith，Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points After 75 Years（New York：Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs，1993）.

53　Here，and in the following paragraph，I've used the text of the“Fourteen Points”speech，available at：www.avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/wilsonl4.asp.

54　A recent comprehensive account is Sean McMeekin，The Russian Revolution：A New History（New York：Basic Books，2017）.See also Arno J.Mayer's earlier but influential Wilson vs.Lenin：The Political Origins of the New Diplomacy，1917-1918（Cleveland：World Publishing，1964；first published under the subtitle by the Yale University Press in 1959）.

55　The best accounts are still George F.Kennan's two Princeton University Press volumes：Soviet-American Relations，1917-1920：Russia Leaves the War（1956）and The Decision to Intervene（1958）.

56　I've discussed this paradox in Russia，the Soviet Union，and the United States：An Interpretive History，second edition（New York：McGraw Hill，1990），pp.71-72.For a reassessment of the German victory in the east and its aftermath，see Adam Tooze，The Deluge：The Great War，America and the Remaking of the Global Order（New York：Penguin，2014），pp.108-70.

57　Runciman，The Confidence Trap，pp.74-75，makes a similar argument.

58　See Jonathan D.Spence，God's Chinese Son：The Taiping Heavenly Kingdom of Hong Xiuquan（New York：Norton，1996）.

59　A point made by Kennan in The Decline of Bismarck's European Order，pp.3-7.

60　See chapter two.

61　Shrewdly assessed in Thompson，A Sense of Power，pp.76-79.

62　In the sense of the support for war on which each belligerent relied，not the more rigorous definitions devised by“democratic peace”theorists in their efforts to convince themselves that democracies don't fight one another.Bruce Russett summarizes these in Grasping the Democratic Peace：Principles for a Post-Cold War World（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1993），pp.73-83.

63　See note 53，above.

64　Paul Kennedy，The Parliament of Man：The Past，Present，and Future of the United Nations（New York：Random House，2006），pp.3-8.

65　Keith Robbins，Sir Edward Grey：A Biography of Lord Grey of Fallodon（London：Cassell，1971），pp.156-57，319-20；also Howard，The Continental Commitment，pp.51-52；and Neu，Colonel House，pp.214-15.

66　Kissinger，Diplomacy，p.223.

67　See chapter six.

68　Kissinger，Diplomacy，pp.78-102；also Erez Manela，The Wilsonian Moment：Self-Determination and the International Origins of Anticolonial Nationalism（New York：Oxford University Press，2007）.

69　See Berg，Wilson，p.585.

70　Robert B.Strassler，ed.，The Landmark Thucydides：A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War，a revised version of the Richard Crawley translation（New York：Simon and Schuster，1996），4：65.

71　Ibid.，5：89.

72　See Robert V.Daniels，The Rise and Fall of Communism in Russia（New Haven：Yale University Press，2007），pp.32，48.

73　Lenin's speech of November 27，1920，in Jane Degras，ed.，Soviet Documents on Foreign Policy（New York：Oxford University Press，1951），I，p.221.

74　Quoted in Catherine Merridale，Lenin on the Train（New York：Metropolitan Books，2017），p.195.

75　See chapter one.

76　Quoted in Stephen Kotkin，Stalin：The Paradoxes of Power，1878-1928（New York：Penguin，2014），p.612.See also，for this and the following paragraph，Gaddis，Russia，the Soviet Union，and the United States，pp.98-116.

77　Robert Gellately，Lenin，Stalin，and Hitler：The Age of Social Catastrophe（New York：Knopf，2007），pp.163-65.

78　Thompson，A Sense of Power，pp.110-11，127-31.Lenin's concept of dictatorship as vanguard dates back to his 1902 pamphlet“What Is to Be Done？”available at：www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1901/witbd/index.htm.

79　Tooze，The Deluge，pp.515-16.

80　Adam Tooze，The Wages of Destruction：The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy（New York：Penguin，2007），especially pp.ⅹⅹⅳ-ⅹⅹⅵ and 7-12；also Timothy D.Snyder，Black Earth：The Holocaust as History and Warning（New York：Tim Duggan，2015），pp.11-28.

81　Tooze，Wages of Destruction，pp.12-33.

82　Stalin's report is available at：www.marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1933/01/07.htm.

83　Isaiah Berlin，Personal Impressions，edited by Henry Hardy，third edition（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2014），pp.37-39，41.Berlin's essay on Roosevelt first appeared as“Roosevelt Through European Eyes，”The Atlantic 196（July 1955），67-71.

84　Conrad Black，Franklin Delano Roosevelt：Champion of Freedom（New York：Public Affairs，2003），pp.126-27，254-55；Alonzo L.Hamby，For the Survival of Democracy：Franklin Roosevelt and the World Crisis of the 1930s（New York：Free Press，2004），pp.129-35.

85　Gaddis，Russia，the Soviet Union，and the United States，pp.118-21；also Thomas R.Maddux，Years of Estrangement：American Relations with the Soviet Union，1933-1941（Tallahassee：University Presses of Florida，1980），pp.11-26；Mary E.Glantz，FDR and the Soviet Union：The President's Battles over Foreign Policy（Lawrence：University Press of Kansas，2005），pp.15-23.

86　Black，Roosevelt，pp.21，60，65-66.See also Alonzo L.Hamby，Man ofDestiny：FDR and the Making of the American Century（New York：Basic Books，2015），pp.54-55；and www.fdrlibrary.tumblr.com/post/94080352024/day-77-fdr-visitsthe-panama-canal.

87　Robert Dallek，Franklin D.Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy，1932-1945（New York：Oxford University Press，1979），pp.75-76.See also David Kaiser，No End Save Victory：How FDR Led the Nation into War（New York：Basic Books，2014），pp.22-23.

88　Germany had finally been admitted to the League in 1926.Japan was a founding member.

89　Dallek，Franklin D.Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy，pp.75，175-76.

90　Maddux，Years of Estrangement，pp.85-88.

91　See chapter eight.

92　The secretary of the navy，Josephus Daniels，willingly relinquished that responsibility.See Hamby，Man of Destiny，pp.73-81.

93　David M.Kennedy，Freedom from Fear：The American People in Depression and War，1929-1945（New York：Oxford University Press，1999），pp.56-57，106-7，120-24.

94　Samuel I.Rosenman，Working with Roosevelt（New York：Harper，1952），p.167.

95　Dallek，Franklin D.Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy，pp.101-68；Thompson，A Sense of Power，pp.145-50；and，on the last point，Gaddis，George F.Kennan，pp.101-8.

96　Maddux，Years of Estrangement，pp.90-91；Glantz，FDR and the Soviet Union，pp.33-35，43-52.See also Elizabeth Kimball MacLean，Joseph E.Davies：Envoy to the Soviets（Westport，Connecticut：Praeger，1992），pp.24-26，45；and David Mayers，The Ambassadors and America's Soviet Policy（New York：Oxford University Press，1995），pp.118-19.

97　MacLean，Joseph E.Davies，p.67；Charles E.Bohlen，Witness to History，1929-1969（New York：Norton，1973），pp.67-87.

98　Speech to the American Youth Congress，February 10，1940，available at：www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/_resources/images/msf/msf0 1314.

99　Adolf Berle，quoted in Dallek，Franklin D.Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy，p.215.

100　Glantz，FDR and the Soviet Union，pp.54-57.

101　Robert E.Sherwood，Roosevelt and Hopkins：An Intimate History，revised edition（New York：Grosset and Dunlap，1950），pp.233-34.The Lincoln quote comes from an 1879 article by Noah Brooks，“Lincoln's Imagination，”republished in Harold K.Bush，Lincoln in His Own Time：A Biographical Chronicle of His Life（Iowa City：University of Iowa Press，2011），p.176.See also Henry Wadsworth Longfellow Dana，“Sail On，O Ship of State！，”Colby Library Quarterly 2（February 1950），1-6.

102　Susan Dunn，1940：FDR，Willkie，Lindbergh，Hitler—the Election amid the Storm（New Haven：Yale University Press，2013），pp.278-79.Dunn's book ably covers the events I've summarized in the preceding paragraph.

103　Churchill's February 9，1941，radio address is available at：www.youtube.com/watch？v==rJuRv2ixGaM.

104　I've chiefly followed，in these three paragraphs，Maddux，Years of Estrangement，pp.128-55.But see also Glantz，FDR and the Soviet Union，pp.71，77-87；MacLean，Joseph E.Davies，pp.76-77；and my own Russia，the Soviet Union，and the United States，pp.145-47.

105　Winston S.Churchill，The Second World War：The Grand Alliance（New York：Bantam Books，1962；first published in 1950），pp.511-12.

106　I've estimated American combat deaths at 400，000，and equivalents for all participants in World War Ⅱ at 23 million.These figures exclude civilian casualties from both totals.For details，see：www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_Ⅱ_casualties.

107　Thompson，A Sense of Power，p.230.

108　Hal Brands and Patrick Porter，“Why Grand Strategy Still Matters in a World of Chaos，”The National Interest，December 10，2015，available at：www.nationalin terest.org/feature/why-grand-strategy-still-matters-world-chaos-14568.

109　Berlin，Personal Impressions，pp.39-44，48-49.

110　I owe this story to Robert Kaplan，whose 2015 road trip and subsequent book，Earning the Rockies：How Geography Shapes America's Role in the World（New York：Random House，2017），was inspired by it.DeVoto's account is in his“Letter from Santa Fe，”Harper's Magazine 181（July 1940），333-36.See also Arthur M.Schlesinger，Jr.，A Life in the 20th Century：Innocent Beginnings，1917-1950（Boston：Houghton Mifflin，2000），pp.168-71，232-35.

111　John J.O'Neill，“Enter Atomic Power，”Harper's Magazine 181（June 1940），1-10.

112　Radio address，“On National Defense，”May 26，1940，at：www.docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/052640.

第十章

1　Berlin to Stephen Spender，February 26，1936，in Henry Hardy，ed.，Isaiah Berlin：Letters，1928-1946（New York：Cambridge University Press，2004），p.152［hereafter Berlin Letters，1928-1946］.Berlin admired E.M.Forster and Virginia Woolf，but claimed to find them intimidating.［Ibid.，pp.70-71，166.］

2　Berlin to Marion Frankfurter，June 23，1940，in ibid.，p.306.See also Michael Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin：A Life（New York：Henry Holt，1998），p.10.

3　Ibid.，p.82.

4　The most recent biographies are Andrew Lownie，Stalin's Englishman：Guy Burgess，the Cold War，and the Cambridge Spy Ring（New York：St.Martin's，2015）；and Stewart Purvis and Jeff Hulbert，Guy Burgess：The Spy Who Knew Everyone（London：Biteback，2016）.

5　Editorial note，Berlin Letters，1928-1946，p.319；also Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，pp.97-99.

6　Berlin to Mary Fisher，July 30，1940，in Berlin Letters，1928-1946，p.322.See also p.319.

7　Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，p.98.

8　Christopher Nolan's 2017 film Dunkirk movingly evokes Churchill's speech.

9　John Wheeler-Bennett，Special Relationships：America in Peace and War（London：Macmillan，1975），pp.87-88.

10　Berlin explains the format in his introduction to H.G.Nicholas，ed.，Washington Despatches，1941-1945：Weekly Political Reports from the British Embassy（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，1981），pp.ⅶ-ⅹⅳ.

11　Summaries for January 12，February 4，March 20，August 16，1942，ibid.，pp.12，18，26，71；also Berlin's introduction，pp.ⅹ-ⅹⅰ.

12　Summaries for May 14，November 21，1942，March 14，1943，ibid.，pp.38-39，116，160.

13　Summaries for February 28，April 3，October 22，1943，ibid.，pp.157，172，263.

14　Summaries for December 29，1943，January 17，18，1944，ibid.，pp.288，307，309.

15　Summaries for February 28，Apri125，1943，January 18，February 20，December 24，1944，ibid.，pp.155-56，184，309，319，485-86.

16　Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，p.126.Berlin's own account is in Berlin Letters，1928-1946，pp.478-80.

17　Isaiah Berlin to Marie and Mendel Berlin，August 16，1943，in ibid.，p.456；Berlin to Katharine Graham，January 1949，in Isaiah Berlin，Enlightening：Letters，1946-1960，edited by Henry Hardy and Jennifer Holmes（London：Chatto and Windus，2009），p.73.

18　Berlin to Stuart Hampshire，June 6，1945，in Berlin Letters，1928-1946，p.569.

19　Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，pp.138-39.

20　Ibid.，p.137.

21　Except for being raucously summoned by an inebriated Randolph Churchill，son of the（now）former prime minister，to translate instructions to his hotel's staff on how to ice down caviar.Few unforgettable moments are unattended by others better forgotten.

22　Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，p.168.I've followed Ignatieff's account at pp.148-69；but also Berlin's reminiscences，composed in 1980，which appear in his The Proper Study of Mankind：An Anthology of Essays，edited by Henry Hardy and Roger Hausheer（New York：Farrar，Straus and Giroux，1998），pp.525-52.

23　Ibid.，pp.541，543，547.

24　The Complete Poems of Anna Akhmatova，translated by Judith Hemschemeyer（Boston：Zephyr Press，1997），p.547.

25　Berlin to Philip Graham，November 14，1946，in Berlin，Enlightening，p.21.

26　Isaiah Berlin，“Russian Intellectual History，”written in 1966 and reprinted in The Power of Ideas，edited by Henry Hardy（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2000），p.84.

27　Berlin Letters，1928-1946，pp.488-89.See also Ignatieff，Isaiah Berlin，p.131.

28　Isaiah Berlin，“Political Ideas in the Twentieth Century，”Foreign Affairs 28（April 1950），356-57.

29　Ibid.，pp.362-63.

30　Ibid.，pp.364-66；also Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”in Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind，p.310.

31　Isaiah Berlin，Personal Impressions，edited by Henry Hardy（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2014），pp.41-42，46.See also Noel Annan's introduction to Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind，p.ⅹⅹⅹⅴ；and，for the Short Course，Stephen Kotkin，Stalin：Waiting for Hilter，1929-1941（New York：Penguin Press，2017），pp567-79.

32　Berlin，“The Originality of Machiavelli，”in Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind，pp.324-25.It's“no accident，”as the Marxists used to like to say，that one of the best early studies of Roosevelt's leadership is James MacGregor Burns，Roosevelt：The Lion and the Fax（New York：Harcourt，Brace，and World，1956），a title inspired by Machiavelli.

33　Quoted in Warren F.Kimball，The Juggler：Franklin Roosevelt as Wartime Statesman（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1991），p.7.

34　Ibid.，pp.8-19.See also Wilson D.Miscamble，C.S.C.，From Roosevelt to Truman：Potsdam，Hiroshima，and the Cold War（New York：Cambridge University Press，2007），especially pp.79-86.

35　Kimball，The Juggler，p.7.Emphasis added.

36　Geoffrey C.Ward，A First-Class Temperament：The Emergence of Franklin D.Roosevelt，1905-1928（New York：Vintage Books，1989），chapters 13-16.

37　Ibid.，pp.ⅹⅲ-ⅹⅴ.

38　Carl von Clausewitz，On War，edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret（Princeton：Princeton University Press，1976），p.100.

39　In one of several versions，a small boy finds a large pile of manure under a Christmas tree.Undaunted，he shouts excitedly that“there's got to be a pony in here somewhere，”and starts digging.For the provenance，see www.quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/.

40　Philip E.Tetlock，Expert Political Judgment：How Good Is It？How Can We Know？（Princeton：Princeton University Press，2005），pp.214-15；further discussed in chapter one.

41　Tetlock，Expert Political Judgment，p.215.The citation of Fitzgerald is on p.67.

42　Isaiah Berlin，“Two Concepts of Liberty，”in Berlin，The Proper Study of Mankind，pp.191-242.

43　I'm following here Noel Annan's explanation of Berlin's“pluralism”in his foreword to ibid.，pp.ⅹⅱ-ⅹⅲ，although the tightrope metaphor is my own.

44　Berlin“The Originality of Machiavelli，”in ibid.，p.324.

45　“Robert F.Kennedy Shocks Texans by Questioning Mexican War，”New York Times，February 17，1962；“Robert Kennedy Bows in‘War’with Texas，”New vwYork Times，March 5，1962.See also Arthur M.Schlesinger，Jr.，Robert F.Kennedy and His Times（Boston：Houghton Mifflin，1978），p.568.

46　See chapter six.

47　Sun Tzu，The Art of War，translated by Samuel B.Griffith（New York：Oxford University Press，1963），pp.142-43.